After hitting his 300th home run, Juan Soto tried to visualize even greater, historic milestones that await Aaron Judge.
“I hope he breaks the home run record,” Soto said Wednesday, referring to Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs. “Why not? I think he’s a guy that can literally break the record. He’s shown it off every single time. I hope he’s healthy enough to do it. I’d love to enjoy it while I can.”
If Soto can figure out where Judge, a unique superstar in every respect, including his relatively late breakout season in baseball, ends up, there’s no reason we can’t.
First, it’s highly unlikely that Judge will ever challenge Bonds’ or Henry Aaron’s all-time home run records (755) — in part because Bonds debuted at age 21, Aaron at 20 and Judge at 24, and they didn’t break out until their age-25 seasons.
The 32-year-old Judge is likely to finish the season with around 315 home runs. By the time he reached 33, Bonds had already hit 374 and Aaron had hit 442.
Judge holds the record for fastest player to reach 300 home runs in both games played (955) and at-bats (3,431) by a significant margin, but his long path to the big leagues (three years at Fresno State followed by three seasons in the minor leagues) may not be a good match for him in the quest to become the greatest of all time.
Judge’s 300 tied him with Ryan Howard as the 62nd most ever recorded by a player before turning 33.
The all-time records for players under the age of 33 are Alex Rodriguez (who made his debut at age 18) with 553, Jimmie Foxx (age 17) with 500, Albert Pujols (age 21) with 475, Ken Griffey Jr. (age 19) with 468, and Mickey Mantle (age 19) with 454.
Judge, who is about six weeks away from hitting 60 home runs this season, has averaged 45 home runs per year since 2021.
If that same pace continues into his late 30s and early 40s, a sort of Tom Brady career curve where growing smarts seem to make up for declining athleticism, the 43-year-old Judge will surpass Bonds and Aaron’s records in 11 years, four years from the end of his current nine-year contract with the Yankees.
What if Judge’s story is similar to Bonds’?
Beginning in 2000, the year he turned 36, the slugger exploded on after hitting a season-high of 46 home runs (set seven years earlier), averaging roughly 52 per game over the next five seasons.
Bonds received performance-enhancing assistance that helped him improve his game in his late 30s and early 40s.
Judge has continued to evolve as a hitter as he’s gotten older, and he’s only gotten better with more experience.
Perhaps the unprecedented dominance he unleashed this season will continue as he continues to have great seasons, and if he continues to perform consistently over the next six weeks and stays on pace for 58 home runs this year, he could surpass Bonds in eight years.
Neither of those trajectories seem likely, but they’re fun to consider, especially in a sports era where LeBron James is dominating at age 39 and Aaron Rodgers is giving the Jets hope at age 40.
The Yankees know what they’re witnessing is historic and, at least at this absurd level, may also be temporary.
“What Aaron’s doing is amazing,” manager Aaron Boone said after Wednesday’s win over the White Sox in Chicago. “Only a handful of players in the history of baseball have enjoyed the kind of season he’s having.”
The all-time record speculation may be absurd, but so is Judge’s campaign and career.
A player who struck out 42 times in his first 27 major league games has identified weaknesses in his game and is working to fix them.
He figured out an effective swing and a training routine that allowed him to stay primarily on the field after multiple injuries in his younger years.
A solid center fielder with a .333 batting average, .467 on-base percentage, 43 home runs and 110 RBI, he left no holes in the running and would have been on his way to the Triple Crown if not for Bobby Witt Jr.’s .349 batting average.
If the No. 99’s biggest obstacle to making history is the time he’s already missed, the second-most significant is perhaps the time he could miss.
He missed nearly two months of last season with a torn ligament in his toe.
He missed more than 100 games in 2018-19 due to first a broken wrist and then a sprained oblique muscle.
Among the miracles he would have needed to make history would have been exceptional health in the latter stages of his career.
No matter how his season and career ends, the Yankees captain is beginning to position himself in the conversation with the legends.
“We want to continue to do things to stay similar to them,” Judge said.
