Opinions are divided on the role the opposition can play in breaking the current stalemate between the government and Gen Z protesters and returning the country to normalcy.
The minority parties in Kenya’s parliament, the official opposition in the country’s parliament, have been lackluster and have failed to provide alternative leadership as envisaged by the current constitution and democratic traditions.
Britain is the most recent example, with new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who leads a strong Labour opposition, taking advantage of Conservative leader Rishi Sunak’s fragile majority party and giving the country a new voice with a landslide victory in the recent elections, and Britain is hopeful that things are starting to return to normal.
Some analysts argue that it is time for Kenya’s opposition parties to take the lead, rally the youth and build a framework to address the governance issues that President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanzaa administration want to address.
However, another school of thought argues that opposition politicians are perceived as part of the old regime and therefore have no moral obligation to lead the dialogue.
Professor Gitire Naituri of Multimedia University believes the opposition should use this opportunity not only to make their case but also to mentor the youth to achieve their objectives.
“I think the opposition made the right choice by not joining the protests too early, which allowed the protesters to identify the issues they wanted resolved as quickly as possible,” Naituri said.
So the opposition party was giving Gen Z a platform to demonstrate that they too have solutions to the country’s serious problems. To obstruct it would rob them of that opportunity and risk losing everything that was being raised.
It is also worth noting that the opposition had raised the same issues in the past but did not have the same strength and initiative, which is why they had to step back and let the new generation take the reins.
Gen Zers are raising issues that their parents and other Kenyans currently face, including issues that they say will impact their future and that of their children.
But Naituri believes that while young people have done well so far and brought unprecedented gains to the government, the time is ripe for the opposition to redirect Gen Z’s energy for positive outcomes.
This is because Gen Z cannot continue with endless demonstrations only when they define their goals through structured discussion.
“Opposition parties can provide such a platform as they have the experience and knowledge to redirect the youth energy and get positive results that will benefit the country,” Naituri said.
The problem is that young protesters have repeatedly warned opposition forces to stay away and just a week ago warned ODM leader Raila Odinga not to push through with his call for dialogue between them and President Ruto.
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Naituri says they are resentful because they don’t want to be taken advantage of and have watched politicians ruin their futures by implementing bad policies that give them little access to education.
Gen Z has also repeatedly called on the government to enforce and uphold the constitution, arguing that if the law were strictly followed, there would be no need to interact with politicians.
Political commentators have urged outraged youths to remain calm, saying the slogan “Ruto must go” may not materialise given the loud calls for the entire government, including the deputy president, to step down.
If the president and vice president are removed from office, the speaker would assume the position for 90 days and then call an election, but with no independent electoral district commission in place, this would create further chaos.
Naithuri believes it would be wise for opposition parties to hold town hall meetings across the country to mobilise resources to register young people to vote in large numbers and make them understand that elections can only be held once every five years.
“They need a town hall meeting where they will explain that they are not interfering to give space to Mr Ruto but to preserve the integrity of the country,” Naituri added.
Professor Peter Kagwanja of the Africa Policy Institute believes that since all top politicians in the government and the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya coalition are part of the old regime, the opposition leaders will not have any role to play in moving things forward.
He said Gen Z may be too young to remember that what the country is currently going through is the result of the political realignment undertaken by President Daniel arap Moi at the Kenya African National Union (Kanu) delegates’ conference on March 18, 2002.
At that famous meeting in Kasarani, delegates approved the merger of Raila Odinga’s National Development Party with the Kanu Party and the appointment of the Leader of the Opposition as its Secretary-General, thus forming the New Kanu Party.
Kagwanja noted that Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi and Ruto, all of whom were appointed to senior positions in New Kanu that day, are still influencing politics and this is something Gen Z does not want.
“They have influenced and shaped our politics because of their differences, but they should realise that the old order has disappeared with the Gen Z protests. Kenya is experiencing the birth of a new moral order that has to get rid of all these people. I don’t think there will be liberation until this old order is gone,” Kagwanja says.
He further argues that the current politics based on rewards and payoffs to loyalists will disappear as people demand scrutiny and moral examination of those seeking leadership positions.
He further noted that Prime Minister Ruto will be under strong pressure to reinstate some individuals, particularly former ministers from the Rift Valley and Mount Kenya, to his cabinet but that this will not be possible as the country wants a clean slate.
“Mr Ruto’s future now depends on a new moral order. If he wants to create a new moral order he must abide by this new movement, but those who want change must also abide by the rules,” Kagwanja said.
He further said Ruto could still recover and be re-elected in 2027 depending on how he navigates the current crisis and does not create space for further resentment against him.
He warned President Ruto: “Please manage this period of turmoil well and allow the country to move forward. Removing him from power during this time will plunge the country into unknown uncertainty as it is at a turning point.”
Dr Hassan Haneje, director of the Horn Institute, a Nairobi-based research and policy think tank, also warned that the slogan “Ruto must go” is inspiring for youths and opposition parties but is recklessly pushing things to the edge.
“Let’s face it, he was elected to serve until 2027 and whether we like him or not, he’s likely going to be stuck with the current president until then,” Haneje said.
He says the extreme positions taken by Gen Z and some opposition leaders do not provide the right environment for dialogue.
He, however, called for serious consideration of the demands of Kenyans because what they want is a more competent, accountable and balanced government, one that does not burden the people with excessive taxation.
“Kenyans are also demanding an end to corruption, which is a threat to national security. If Parliament moves in that direction, a bare minimum of the demands raised by Gen Z will be met,” he added.
Kaneje believes that if the Ruto administration holds corrupt people to account and those responsible for extrajudicial killings track down missing abducted victims, the administration will be taken seriously.
He argues that the president has the judicial power to lead and shouldn’t be forced to resign because if he did, the vice president would take over, but that’s not what Gen Z wants.
This was echoed by Naithuri, who warned that removing him from office could create problems for the country. Naithuri called on President Ruto to simply implement what is written in the constitution and address issues that may not require dialogue.
“I understand the pain of Gen Z. Mr Ruto needs to restore health insurance for his children, free primary education, full tuition at secondary level and bring back the old university funding model,” Naituri added.
He also called on the President to order an end to all ongoing abductions, release all those arrested, provide compensation to all injured and killed, and then seek time to implement other things listed by Gen Z.
The president must treat Gen Z as partners and problem solvers, not enemies, and stop their radicalization, otherwise they will become even more emboldened and create bigger problems for the country, as is happening across Kenya.
