Vice President Harris disembarks from Air Force Two in Milwaukee ahead of a campaign event on Tuesday. Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images Hide caption
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Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images
The 2024 presidential campaign has been reset with more voters moving into the undecided camp in favor of Kamala Harris as the likely Democratic nominee, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.
While Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied, 1 in 5 independents and nearly 3 in 10 independent women say they’re currently undecided, meaning the next few weeks will be crucial for Harris to re-advertise before opinions harden.

The survey also found that Democrats are now more confident in their chances of winning, and Black voters in particular say they are more motivated to turn out to vote.
But both Harris and Trump will have to woo key voting groups: young people and non-white voters for Trump, and independents, suburbanites and white voters overall for Harris.
Regarding Biden’s decision to step down from the presidential race, an overwhelming majority of Americans support his choice, and two-thirds believe he should complete his term rather than stepping down.
Harris and Trump are statistically tied
In head-to-head races, Trump has 46% and Harris has 45%, with 9% undecided. A Marist College poll earlier this month found that only 2% were undecided between Trump and Biden. The poll was conducted Monday among 1,309 adults through an online survey panel. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points, meaning the results could be about 3 points higher or lower. In five-way races, Trump and Harris each have 42%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has 7%, the lowest since Marist College began testing in April, and independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein have just 1%. Notably, as the race shifts from a head-to-head with Trump to a third-party choice race, Harris has secured more support from Gen Z/Millennials and non-white voters than Biden. Earlier this month, Biden lost support from younger voters by 13 points and from non-white voters by 10 points. Meanwhile, Harris has largely maintained her support among these demographics.
A significant number of different groups are now moving into the undecided category.
With the number of undecideds growing, Harris appears to have an opportunity that Biden did not have — a key sign of how much of a fresh start this is for the campaign.
Democrats overwhelmingly want Harris to be their nominee.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they want Biden to be the nominee by a 77%-22% margin. Black voters are the most likely subgroup to say they are more likely to vote now that Biden is out of office, with 50% saying so. Hispanics (46%) and voters ages 18-29 (43%) were also the most likely to say they are more likely to vote now.

While Americans agree that Biden made the right choice by not running for reelection, most believe he should complete the presidency.
Eighty-seven percent say it’s right for him to step down, including 87% of Democrats and Republicans and 90% of independents. Two-thirds (68%) think Biden should serve out his term. Republicans are sharply divided, with 53% saying he should step down and 47% saying he should serve out his term.
The majority said the decision would increase Democrats’ chances of winning.
By a 41% to 24% margin, Americans say Biden’s decision will improve Democrats’ chances of winning this fall’s election. One-third say it will have no effect. Two-thirds of Democrats (65%) say it will improve their chances. Among independents, 38% say the same, while 21% say it will have no effect. A majority of Republicans (42%) don’t think it will have an effect, and many of them (36% to 21%) say it will have more of a negative effect than a positive one.
Harris started off with a negative favorability rating, but it was slightly better than Trump’s.
Harris received a combined positive and negative rating of 40% to 44%, with 15% saying they had never heard of her or were unsure about her, while Trump received a rating of 43% to 49%, with 8% unsure about her.
In the last Marist poll, Biden’s disapproval rating was seven points lower than Harris’. Trump’s disapproval rating is four points lower than in the pre-convention Marist poll, suggesting that he may have bounced back slightly with the convention. Black voters have the highest favorability rating of any group, at 61%. White evangelical Christians (73%) and men without a college degree (62%) give Trump the highest approval ratings. These numbers indicate which voters are likely to make up the strongest parts of each candidate’s base.
This is a critical moment for Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, because many people have yet to form an opinion of him.
41% said they had never heard of him or were unfamiliar with him, while only 28% had a favorable opinion and 31% had an unfavorable opinion.
There is little consensus on the vice presidential candidate, as little is known about him.
Twenty-one percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like to choose Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as their running mate, and another 21% would like to see Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as their running mate, followed by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (17%), Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (13%), North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (8%), Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (7%), Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (6%) and Maryland Governor Wes Moore (6%).
Biden’s presidency, colored by partisanship, is not seen as a positive one.
Half of those surveyed said Biden will be remembered as a below average or one of the worst presidents of all time (31% said they were the worst, 19% said they were below average). A quarter said they were average, and another quarter said they were above average or one of the best. Opinions vary widely by party, however, with 85% of Republicans and 57% of independents saying Biden will be seen as below average or one of the worst, while 55% of Democrats said he was above average or one of the best. By comparison, when President Trump leaves office, a majority (60%) said he will be remembered as below average or one of the worst. In 2016, 40% of respondents said former President Barack Obama would be seen as the best or above average, compared to 31% who said he was below average or one of the worst.

Digging into the numbers, Harris has some work to do among independents, suburban voters and white voters.
Harris, facing Trump, only received 32% of independents, compared to Biden’s 46% in the last Marist College poll. Among white voters, Harris received only 40% support, compared to 47% for Biden. Among small city/suburban women, she received 42% support, compared to 58% for Biden. Trump leads suburban voters 50% to 42%, compared to Biden’s 56% to 42% lead before. But Harris has a chance to persuade these voters, as one in five independents (21%) are undecided, up from just 4% before. Eleven percent of small city/suburban women are also undecided, up from 2% in the last poll. The same is true for suburban voters, up from 2% before. Seven percent of white voters said so earlier this month, compared to just 2% of those who said so before.
But Trump sees declining support among younger voters, non-white voters and those without college degrees.
Trump’s approval rating fell 9 points among voters under 35 and those without a college degree, as well as 8 points among non-white voters and parents with children under 18.