Deutsche Bank also expects Tesla to sell 45,000 cars in China in July, LiAuto to sell 48,000 cars, and ZhiKor to sell 15,000 cars.
Deutsche Bank expects NIO (NYSE:NIO) to continue delivering more than 20,000 units in July, which would mark the third consecutive month it has exceeded that figure.
In a research note sent to investors today, analyst Wang Bin’s team released their July delivery forecasts for major new energy vehicle (NEV) makers, saying achieving sequential growth will not be easy.
Specifically, the team expects NIO to sell 21,000 retail units in July, flat year-over-year and flat quarter-over-quarter.
“NIO’s domestic retail sales totaled 13,300 units over the last three weeks of July, and we forecast NIO’s full-year July deliveries to be approximately 21,000 units (flat year-on-year and flat month-on-month),” the team said.
According to the team, NIO’s sales promotion activities for the first 20 days of July will be in line with its June policy, so new orders are expected to reach around 22,000 units.
However, NIO announced that starting July 22, it will reduce the promotional prices of the ES6 and EC6 by RMB 5,000 ($690), and the ET5 and ET5 Touring by RMB 3,000.
This resulted in a significant increase in new orders before the promotional cuts, the team said.
Nio delivered 21,209 vehicles in June, setting a new record, beating the previous record of 20,544 delivered in May.
Wang’s team expects Xpeng to sell 10,000 units in July, down 6% from the previous quarter and 9% from a year ago.
According to the team, Xpeng’s domestic retail sales in July are estimated at 8,500 units, with overseas deliveries estimated at 1,500 units.
In the first three weeks of July, Xpeng’s domestic retail sales totaled 5,400 units, the team said, adding that amid tough market conditions, Xpeng offered further discounts to car buyers in July.
In June, car buyers had to choose between a cash subsidy and a car loan interest subsidy. The company has now started offering both a cash subsidy of the same amount as in June and zero-interest car loans.
As a result, the research team noted, Xpeng offered subsidies of RMB 15,000-20,000 per unit for the P7i, and RMB 15,000 per unit for the P5, G6 and G9.
Xpeng does not currently have a significant backlog of orders, and new orders and deliveries are very close together, the team said, adding that all vehicles in the company’s lineup only have to wait one to two weeks for delivery.
Wang’s team expects Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to sell 48,000 units in July, slightly below the company’s target of 50,000 units but up 41 percent year-over-year and flat from the previous quarter.
According to the team, Lee Auto’s domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 30,000 units, and the company’s new orders are estimated to be around 46,000 units.
The team expects Tesla to sell 45,000 vehicles in China in July, up 37% from a year ago and down 23% from the prior quarter.
The team said Tesla China’s domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 28,400 units, with new orders expected to be between 40,000 and 50,000 units.
Wang’s team said BYD’s retail sales in July are expected to reach 300,000 units, up 8.5% from the previous quarter and 41% from a year ago.
BYD’s domestic retail sales totaled 194,000 units in the first three weeks of July, and based on feedback from dealers, new orders for July are expected to be quite strong and exceed 300,000 units, the team said.
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) to make 15,000 retail sales in July, up 25% year over year and down 25% quarter over quarter.
According to the team, Zika’s domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 10,200 units, with new orders for July estimated at around 15,000 units.
Leap Motor’s retail sales in July are estimated at 21,000 units, up 46% year over year and 4% quarter over quarter.
According to the team, domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 13,100 units, and the C16 has received more than 10,000 orders since its launch on June 28.
Huawei-backed Aite’s retail sales are estimated to have been 43,000 units in July, up about 865% from a year ago and flat from June.
According to the team, domestic retail sales of the Aito brand totaled 27,000 units in the first three weeks of July, with new orders estimated at around 25,000 units.
Notably, Aito’s backlog of orders at the end of June was approximately 75,000 units, with roughly 20,000 M7 Ultra, 40,000 M9 and 15,000 M5, and the team said it expects to support monthly deliveries of 43,000 units in July.
(1 dollar = 7.2756 yuan)
China EV insurance registrations week ending July 21: NIO 4,600, Tesla 10,500, Xiaomi 1,500, BYD 66,700
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