Say goodbye to the offseason, say goodbye to transfers, injuries, and sifting through fall camp records: there are real college football games this weekend, and while there are only two FBS vs. FBS games (one of which is in the Irish), they’re real, and I couldn’t be more excited.
With actual games, there are games to bet on. Week 0 and Week 1 markets have been up for a long time, but I still think there’s a little bit of value in my college football prediction model. I might also add some bets on games across the pond depending on how things play out later in the week, so stay tuned.
Since there are only a few games this week, we will also add some of the best game lines of the year. In case you didn’t know, some sportsbooks offer markets on the biggest games of the year well in advance. We think quite a few games are worth betting on, so we will go over them below.
Unless otherwise stated, all bets are 1 unit on the favorite to win and 1 unit on the underdog. I will also list my “worst bets”, which are the last numbers I would bet before it’s no longer worth betting on. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out in the comments or X/Twitter (@amock419).
Best bets for week 0
SMU vs. Nevada 57.5 or under (-110)
My model rates the field goal as too high, but a big reason for this is that Nevada is rated as a bottom-five offense in college football. Nevada’s offense is not expected to be good, making it hard to score points. As for SMU, the Mustangs tended to play a slow pace at the end of last season. They have a 3+ touchdown advantage, so I don’t expect them to play at that pace here. I haven’t forgotten the 2-minute warning, and I’ve done my best to adjust the scoring environment to capture the change, but I don’t think the expected large margin will affect them much here.
Worst odds to bet on: Under 57 (-110)
Week 0 Score Predictions
Going deeper
The Athletic 134: Rankings of every team from Ohio State at No. 1 to Kennesaw State at No. 134
Best bets for look ahead lines
Iowa State Money Line (+116) vs. University of Iowa
We won’t know if Iowa’s offense is improving until we see it. Reports coming out of fall camp weren’t very favorable on their offense, and while their defense will likely remain top-tier, I can’t trust a team with such poor offensive performance. Iowa had one of the luckiest seasons in history last year and I think they’ll decline going forward.
Oklahoma +8.5 (-110) vs. Texas
That’s too high a bet for a team that lost elite wide receivers and defensive linemen, Quinn Ewers is good but not great, and there are too many questions about Texas’ return to bet on anything more than a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the Red River Showdown.
Penn State +3.5 (-102) vs. Ohio State
I don’t know if this is the year Penn State beats Ohio State, but Ohio State has proven it can play close games against the Buckeyes (Ohio State has won 11 of the last 12 in the series, but 6 of the last 10 have been decided by single digits). I think Penn State has strengthened both coordinator positions. If the offensive line was not in question, I think this really was a coin toss. With the team as it is, I don’t think Penn State should get more than a field goal (and cheap!) at Beaver Stadium.
(Photo of Preston Stone by Chris LeDuc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
