Competition for next-generation EV batteries could soon shift to semi-solid batteries

PARIS, France – Efforts to commercialize solid-state batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) are on track, but analysts say the auto giant may be turning to a different kind of transformative science. It is pointed out that there is.

Solid-state batteries have long been touted as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving. As the name suggests, solid-state batteries contain a solid electrolyte made from materials such as ceramics. This makes them different from traditional lithium-ion batteries, which contain a liquid electrolyte.

This next-generation technology theoretically packs more energy into a unit volume than lithium-ion batteries. Proponents say it can provide safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), with faster charging times.

Automakers have invested billions of dollars in solid-state battery research and worked with developers to produce their own versions for mass production.

For example, Japan’s Toyota said it aims to mass produce solid-state batteries between 2027 and 2028. The automaker said recent breakthroughs in efforts to improve the durability of the technology mean the batteries are expected to be able to provide range. It has a range of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) and takes just 10 minutes to charge.

In April, Japan’s Nissan announced plans to release solid-state batteries for EVs by early 2029, but Germany’s Nissan also announced plans to release solid-state batteries for EVs by early 2029. mercedes benz group and US battery startup Factorial announced in September that the two companies are collaborating on the development of a solid-state battery that will be ready for production by the end of 2010. Factorial also has co-development agreements with automakers such as Stellantis, Hyundai, and Kia.

According to the Environmental Defense Fund, the average range of an EV in the United States is about 300 miles (or 483 kilometers) on a single charge, but charging times for battery-powered EVs can vary from 20 minutes to several hours, depending on conditions. be. Car speed and charging point speed.

Wood Mackenzie analyst Max Read said solid-state batteries are at the beginning of a long journey toward commercialization.

“Obviously, the results look very promising: much safer, much better energy density and especially the charging speed, which we think is probably one of the main advantages of solid-state. ,” Reid told CNBC in a video call.

But despite the growing hype over the potential deployment of solid-state batteries, analysts remain skeptical about when solid-state batteries will actually come to market.

Wood Mackenzie’s Reid said one of the big drawbacks of solid-state batteries is that they expand during charging, and eventually the cells deteriorate over long periods of time.

“If you had talked to me about this five years ago, I would have been very excited about solid-state batteries,” said Julia Poliscanova, senior director of vehicle and e-mobility supply chain at campaign group Transport and Environment. told CNBC in Paris. motor show.

“But somehow, between pilot and commercialization, there’s a kind of barrier, a kind of roadblock today, because every time I talk to auto executives at battery conferences, I keep hearing the same answer. ‘We’re five to seven years away.’

“If you look at the current technology, lithium-ion batteries, it’s so advanced. The incremental improvements in cheaper technology are so good that it’s no longer that attractive to focus so much on solid state batteries. It might be gone,’” Poliskanova added.

However, another option is semi-solid batteries. These batteries employ a hybrid design of solid and liquid electrolytes, and some analysts say they could act as a bridge between the two types of batteries.

Reid said semi-solid batteries are already commercialized “to a significant extent” in China, and “in fact, in my opinion, this is a compromise technology that actually eliminates the need for fully solid-state batteries.” . ”

“Given the slowdown in (EV) demand in the West and these issues with solid-state, we may see some negative or less positive announcements about full solid-state, but if that happens. We’re actually going to see a little bit of a shift towards semi-solids, which are going to be the better transitional technology that this decade needs,” Reid said.

Semi-solid battery development is mainly led by Chinese companies such as CATL, one of the world’s largest battery manufacturers, WeLion, Qingdao Energy, and Ganfeng Lithium.

Chinese EV maker Nio has already commercialized a 150-kilowatt-and-a-half solid-state battery for EVs with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers. Separately, Ganfeng Lithium’s subsidiary Ganfeng LiEnergy produces semi-solid batteries for EVs with a range of 530 kilometers.

Transport and Environment’s Poliskanova said China is seeing progress in semi-solid batteries, because “those who understand how to make batteries will always make the next battery.”

“I think lower-cost innovations, as opposed to solid-state, are leading to more attention and commercialization, probably because they already have good performance in the automotive space. Yes. We can also talk about trucks and planes, but in the vehicle space, 600-800 kilometers is enough,” she added.

Not everyone is convinced about the impending switch to semi-solid batteries or the hype about the mass introduction of solid-state batteries in the coming years.

“When you look at the EV space, the reality right now is that lithium-based batteries still have a long way to go,” Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America Global Research, told CNBC. He spoke on the show “Squawk.” Box Europe” October 9th.

“That is the mainstay and will probably remain that way for the next five to 10 years,” he added.