The last time a major storm like Hurricane Milton hit Tampa Bay was in 1921, when it was a sleepy backwater with a population of a few hundred thousand people. Now, a century later, it is one of the fastest growing large cities in the United States with a population of more than 3 million people and is highly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change. As Milton races toward the Florida Gulf Coast, The storm will strengthen to a Category 5 storm on Monday.Experts fear that a century of good fortune could come to an abrupt end.
Here’s what you need to know:
Why is Tampa so vulnerable?
The National Hurricane Center estimates that Hurricane Milton could cause storm surges in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters to be 8 to 12 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) above normal tidal conditions, and precipitation to be 4 to 6 inches (10 to 3 meters) higher than normal tidal conditions. It is expected to be 15 cm.
The entire Florida Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable to storm surge. last week, hurricane helenIt made landfall about 150 miles (240 kilometers) from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, but storm surges about 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels could cause drownings in the Tampa area. I was able to do it.
“If it had made landfall a little further south and east, it could have been much, much worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The increased risk is partly due to terrain effects. Florida’s Gulf of Mexico coastline is shallow and has gently sloping shelves. The higher sea floor acts as a barrier to hold back water runoff from storms, pushing the ocean up to the shore. This is the opposite of Florida’s east coast, where the ocean floor suddenly drops several miles from shore.
“The same storm, same strength, same everything, can have a completely different surge,” Klotzbach said.
2015 Report A research team from Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark & Company has found that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the United States to storm surge flooding from hurricanes, with the potential to lose $175 billion in damages. I concluded that there is.
Are residents ready?
Floridians are used to storms, but Tampa hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane in more than a century.
During that time, the region has experienced explosive growth. Tens of thousands of Americans have moved to the region during the coronavirus pandemic, many settling along barrier islands like Clearwater and St. Petersburg that overlook the normally serene emerald bay. I chose. More than 51,000 people will move to the region from 2022 to 2023. 5th fastest growing metropolitan area in the USAccording to US Census data.
Long-term residents may be similarly unprepared for a direct hit, having experienced many false alarms and near-misses like Irma in 2017. Local legend has it that the blessings of the Native Americans who once called this area home and built earthworks to keep out invaders have primarily protected the area from major storms for centuries. is.
Kerry Emanuel, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the Tampa hurricane is the worst-case scenario for a “black swan” that experts have long feared.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very at risk, it’s very inexperienced, and it’s a failed proposition,” said Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years. “I always thought Tampa was the city to worry about the most.”
What about climate change?
Influences are hidden in the waves and wind as well. climate change. Rising temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the oceans, rising sea levels and increasing moisture in the air. All of these are important factors in determining the strength of a hurricane and the potential for flooding it can cause.
Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said: “Global warming is likely to cause hurricane rainfall to become more intense, and rising sea levels will likely increase storm surges, increasing the risk of coastal flooding.” I’m predicting that.” Written in the 2022 report.
On Monday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Milton to a Category 5 storm after gaining strength of 120 km/h over the past 24 hours. One reason may be that the water is particularly warm and acts like fuel for storms.
“Milton’s rapid intensification is incredible,” Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, said in an email. “As I’ve been pointing out for months, the Gulf region has been and continues to be at record or near-record warmth.”
Researchers say rising sea levels brought on by climate change will make Hurricane Andrew’s storm surge 7 inches (17 centimeters) higher today than when Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida 30 years ago. pointed out.
Are people evacuating?
Officials in the region began issuing evacuation orders Monday for residents in six counties around Tampa Bay, home to about 4 million people. Occupants of mobile homes, RVs, and homes that cannot withstand winds of up to 110 mph (177 kph) are especially at risk.
Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Department of Emergency Management, said people who died on barrier islands during Hurricane Ian in 2022 would still be alive if they could cross the bridge to the mainland and find shelter. He urged people to stay away from coastal areas.
“If you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If you’re under an evacuation advisory, please evacuate. Storm surge drowning is 100% preventable if you stay away,” Guthrie said. .
When was the last storm to hit Tampa?
Almost inexplicably, the storm appears to be bypassing Tampa, with most of the Gulf Coast disruption passing well north of the city. The last time the Tampa area was hit by a major hurricane was October 25, 1921. The hurricane did not have an official name, but it is known locally as Storm Tarpon Springs, after the seaside town where it made landfall.
The hurricane’s storm surge was estimated to be a Category 3 with wind speeds of up to 129 mph (207 kph) and was pegged at 11 feet (3.3 meters) in height. At least eight people were killed, and damage was estimated at the time to be $5 million.
Today, the tourist-friendly region, known for its white sand beaches, is growing by leaps and bounds, with an economy estimated to be worth nearly $200 billion. Hurricane Milton threatens to sweep away all that development.
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Associated Press writers Joshua Goodman in Miami and Seth Borenstein in Washington contributed to this report.