Democratic, young and black voters were more interested and more likely to vote, and women clearly thought she would put their interests first. Vice President Kamala Harris Reset 2024 Presidential Election.
She has a one-point lead nationally, something President Biden never had (he was trailing by five points when he dropped out of the race), and Harris and the former president Donald Trump Overall, it’s tied across battleground states.
Looking ahead, voters are defining why the next few weeks will be crucial.
Harris, on the other hand, has an advantage with a broad base of voters that Biden did not have. She led Trump in Cognitive Health To serve, which was of course the focus of previous campaigns. Biden is out of office.
And on policy overall, Harris is seen as slightly different from Biden, meaning there’s still the possibility that she could clarify her positions to voters in any case.
But to Trump’s advantage, some important things remain the same: He maintains a large lead among voters who say they would be better off financially with him and would favor fewer of his policies. Immigration at the border.
The percentage of Democrats who answered “I will definitely vote” reached its highest level this year, narrowing the partisan “voter turnout gap” seen throughout the election campaign.
And today, far more black voters say they will vote than they did in July, when Biden was the candidate.
More generally, all this suggests that elections may depend heavily on voter turnout, and in particular on low-turnout voters – those who don’t necessarily turn out to vote.
For example, Harris currently leads among people who generally say they vote “sometimes” or “rarely” but who now say they will definitely vote.
Women’s vote
Ms. Harris leads among women voters, an advantage Democrats have had and needed in recent years, for at least one big reason: A majority of women voters believe that Ms. Harris would serve women’s interests if elected, something far fewer women say about Mr. Trump.
Voters overall are more likely to see Trump as serving men’s interests more than women’s interests.
In this regard, the gender gap has widened somewhat since the early days of the campaign: Harris leads Trump by a larger margin among women than Biden, while she has roughly the same support as Biden among men.
Enthusiasm and the Democratic Party’s Core Group
A majority of Democrats, and nearly half of all voters overall, say that Ms. Harris’s candidacy has made them more motivated to vote. (There’s also the opposite effect: About a third of Trump supporters say that Ms. Harris’s candidacy has made them more motivated to vote.)
It’s not just that Democrats are more excited, but that they feel they have found a candidate who is a better match for Trump on many levels.
Harris is seen as having sufficient mental and cognitive health to do the job, giving her an advantage over Trump – a crucial weakness for Biden.
Among a broad range of voters, she is more energetic and focused than Trump (two qualities in which Biden trailed far behind), she is on par with Trump in perceived ability, and closer than Biden in rigor and ability.
Black Voters
Harris currently enjoys support among black voters close to what Biden did in 2020 and higher than Biden’s support in polls this year.
Black voters believe Harris cares about everyone, including Black people.
Republicans and Trump supporters believe Harris will serve the interests of black people more than white people, while her supporters believe she will look out for everyone regardless of gender or race.
Trump supporters also believe that Trump serves the interests of everyone, but voters overall are more likely to see Trump as serving the interests of men and whites more than others.
More broadly, as voters assess the state of the country, majorities say the country is ready to elect a Black woman as president, across those who would vote for Harris and many who would not, including about three-quarters of independents and nearly half of Republicans.
For historical context, the 21st century has changed these views. In 2000, just over a third of Americans thought we were ready to elect a black president. But that changed when a CBS News poll in 2008, when Barack Obama was running for president, showed that a majority of Americans were ready.
On policies and issues: What has changed and what has stayed the same?
Harris’ policy views are seen as largely (though not completely) aligned with Biden’s, raising questions about how the campaigns will work to distinguish themselves in the public’s mind in the coming weeks.
Voters see her as somewhat or very liberal (the more conservative one is, the more likely one is to see her as very liberal), and they see Trump as very or somewhat conservative, making the choice more polarized than the electorate as a whole.
On policies to improve people’s financial situations: Harris started in the same position as Biden in July and was far behind Trump.
Half believe Harris’ policies, like Biden’s, would increase the number of migrants attempting to cross the border, while Trump’s policies would decrease it.
On abortion protection: Most people believe Harris would try to pass a nationwide law legalizing abortion.
Harris has argued that Trump would ban abortion nationwide if he were to return to the White House, but she may still have some work to do to persuade voters: Trump has said he would leave the issue up to the states, and voters are inclined to believe that’s exactly what he will do.
A look at the vice presidential selection process
Overall, most Democrats have not explicitly called for Harris to choose a man or woman as her running mate, with some believing she should choose from strategic battleground states.
Third Party Influence
When third-party candidates are included (not all of them are on the ballot in every state), Harris’ national lead is similar in two ways.
State-level estimates
In addition to the national polling, we also provide the latest state-level estimates for seven battleground states. CBS News Statistical Model – incorporates data from this survey along with several others. All estimates are within the margin of error, further supporting the larger claim of a balanced race.
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted between July 30 and August 2, 2024 among a nationally representative sample of 3,102 registered voters. The survey included an oversample of Black respondents. The final sample reported was weighted for gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, and the 2020 Presidential Election vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 points. Battleground districts are: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
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