top line
The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a dead heat with just over two weeks to go until the election, although key battleground states are virtually even, according to a series of polls. Nevertheless, the primary showing is that Harris has a narrow national advantage.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at campaign event at Resch Expo … (+)
AFP (via Getty Images)
important facts
Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday shows Harris with a 4-point lead, 50% to 46%, consistent with last week’s results, but with That’s down from Harris’ 51% to 45% lead.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll also released on Tuesday showed Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but using rounded numbers, the poll has a margin of error of less than 2 points). . Last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also gave him a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.
A poll of voters conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University from October 14th to 18th (with a margin of error of 3.1) found Harris’ approval rating up 1 point, 45% to 44%, Trump has narrowed the lead since the group’s last poll. In August, Harris led by five points.
A poll of voters released Friday by Emerson College also showed Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by just 1 point, 49% to 48%, but in September and early October, Ms. points lead, and in August they had a 4 point lead.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Mr. Trump regaining the lead over Ms. Harris, but the result showed Mr. Trump’s approval rating among likely voters was 50% to 48%, compared to September. , which saw Trump lead 50% to 49%, a change from Harris’ 50% to 48% lead. August.
Harris also leads in two other polls released Wednesday. A Marist College poll of voters gave Harris a 5-point lead (52% to 47%), and a September poll by a closely watched pollster showed her leading by 2 points. The Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters gives her a four-point lead (49%-45%), the same lead Harris held last week.
Several other polls also show the gap is narrowing, with the Oct. 11-13 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of registered voters showing Trump 51% to 49% ahead of Harris. However, the organization’s September survey found that the two had the same score.
An NBC poll of registered voters released on Oct. 13 found Trump and Harris tied at 48%, but an ABC/Ipsos poll released the same day found Harris with a 2nd place among likely voters. It has been shown that there is a point (50%-48%) advantage. The ABC poll had a margin of error of less than 2.5 points, a change that comes after ABC and NBC both gave Harris a lead of about 5 points last month.
The third CBS/YouGov poll, conducted Oct. 13, showed Harris leading Trump in approval ratings with voters, 51% to 48%, compared to 52% to 48% last month. Although the lead is slightly narrower, polls showed Harris with a narrow lead of 50% to 49%. Seven battleground states.
An Oct. 8 New York Times-Siena poll showed Harris up 49% to 46%, putting Harris ahead of Trump for the first time since July in the group’s poll.
Three other polls over the past month (a Quinnipiac poll released on September 24th and a CNN/SSRS poll released on September 24th) had Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris tied.
Harris has narrowed her lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, but that gap has narrowed slightly over the past two months, according to a FiveThirtyEight weighted polling average. , reached 3.7 points at the end of August.
Who has the better chance of winning the election, Harris or Trump?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasts, Trump has a 53-out-of-100 chance of winning, while Harris has a 47-out of 100 chance of winning. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also believes Trump is close, but recently wrote, “I have never seen an election where the odds were around 50-50 for longer.” are.
big number
0.8. That’s the number of points Harris leads over Trump in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average has Harris leading Harris by 1.8 points, and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin predictions have him leading Harris by 1.6 points.
How will Harris perform against Trump in battleground states?
According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Harris has a narrow lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. That means Trump would win the election if the state-level polls were accurate, but all seven battleground states are within single digits, with most states having margins of less than 1 percentage point.
amazing facts
According to an NBC News poll released on September 29, Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, but the gap is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% support Harris, compared to 40% who support Trump. , 6% of respondents said they did not know who they would vote for. According to NBC, support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, but the difference was 36 points in the 2020 poll and 50 points in the 2016 poll. The margin is still significantly lower than the lead Democratic candidates have had in the past. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
What impact did this debate have on the polls?
Pre-debate polls found that Harris’ approval ratings appear to have plateaued, including an NPR/NPR survey of registered voters conducted Sept. 3-5. The PBS/Marist poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a 3-point lead in August. . Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19th found that a majority of voters across all demographics disapproved of Harris’ performance in the September 10th debate. 67% of respondents said that Harris was good, compared to 40% who said that Harris was good. The same goes for Trump. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate found Harris trailing 52% to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47 among registered voters. %, essentially unchanged from his 6-point lead over likely voters. That’s despite an ABC/Ipsos poll in late August and early August saying 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Main background
Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, after weeks of resisting calls from within his party to halt his re-election campaign following his dismal performance in the June 27 debate. He quickly endorsed Harris, and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her during a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after President Trump nominated Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is coupled with increased enthusiasm among Democrats for the election, which has nearly doubled since her candidacy from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans is at 71%. has stagnated. According to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14th.
Read more
Latest HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris wins debate, but voters’ views haven’t changed much (Forbes)
RNC, HarrisX/Forbes poll results reveal Trump leading Biden and Harris (Forbes)
How Kamala Harris is doing in polls against Trump, as Biden steps down and supports Harris (Forbes)
Harris’ lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll results (Forbes)
