If Shehbaz Sharif’s government goes ahead with its decision to ban Imran Khan’s PTI, the country could be plunged into new turmoil, even chaos. This comes at a time when the country needs political calm and stability to rebuild its economy. The decision, announced just days after a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a larger, longer-term loan program, suggests that the government either does not understand the link between economic and political stability, or has chosen to ignore it in a panic.
The panic was apparently sparked by the PTI’s legal victory in the Supreme Court, which ruled that the party was entitled to quota of seats in the national and provincial assemblies. The Supreme Court overturned the rulings of the Election Commission and the Peshawar High Court, and said that the PTI was a political party despite having lost its election symbol. This was a major blow to the ruling coalition. With the PTI poised to emerge as the single largest party in the national assembly and the government losing its two-thirds majority, the ruling party panicked.
PML-N leaders denounced the court’s decision in inappropriate terms, raising tensions with the judiciary. They failed to realise the contradiction between attacking the court and at the same time seeking a review of the decision and then addressing the issue of ban. It is the Supreme Court that has the final say under the constitution to ban political parties.
The ruling party seemed to fear that the Supreme Court’s ruling would open Pandora’s box and cast doubt on the elections of the senators and the president, since the electoral college that elected them was constituted on a legally flawed basis, taking into account the expected redistribution of seats. Perhaps the PML-N’s fears were further intensified by the possibility that the court, which had acquitted Khan in several key cases, would move to order his release from the prison where he has been incarcerated for the past year. This may be why a PML-N spokesman also expressed intention to initiate “high treason” proceedings against Khan.
The country needs political calm, not rising tensions, to stabilize its economy.
The government’s announcement to ban the PTI was widely condemned by many political leaders, the media, lawyers and human rights organisations. The reasons given by the government spokesperson were flimsy and related to charges already dismissed by the judiciary. Legal experts were almost unanimous in stating that it would be nearly impossible for the courts to uphold such a controversial and legally questionable decision when it is referred to. Meanwhile, the government has filed a petition in the Supreme Court seeking a review of the reservation decision.
These developments have heightened political tensions and put the country in a dangerous state of flux. Even if the government were to reverse its decision in light of the fierce opposition, it demonstrates its insecurity and intolerance. It also exposes the fact that the government has little support across the political spectrum, even though the PPP has gone along with the decision, despite its reluctance to take a clear public stance.
After the Supreme Court ruling, a wise and politically prudent government had to make an effort to engage in dialogue with the opposition to gain some understanding on the way forward, especially in light of economic challenges. The PTI had to show similar responsibility. Instead, the government wants to remove it from the political scene. If Pakistan’s history is any guide, outlawing political parties has never worked, as they either survive and fight again or reappear with a new name. But history is no use in Pakistan, and political leaders keep repeating the same mistakes.
There are indications that the government may rescind the ban, saying a final decision will be taken after consultations with political allies. PML-N leaders said they would try to build a consensus first, and the defense minister said it was premature to announce the ban. But if the government decides to go ahead with it, it will take on several risks. The most obvious is the legal risk, given that the Supreme Court is unlikely to uphold the ban. Given that the government has only just recognised the PTI as a political party, it is unlikely to find the PTI acting in a way that is prejudicial to the “sovereignty and unity of Pakistan.”
The political risks are also high. Banning a national party that is expected to be the largest in parliament will inevitably create chaos, deepen polarization and force the PTI to turn to agitation. The coalition will lose its democratic credentials and legitimacy. The move is likely to be opposed by political parties, civil society and the media, and will attract international criticism. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan described the intention to ban the PTI as a “blow to democratic norms”. Indeed, the government has already lost a lot of credibility with its announcement and is suffering the political cost of its inaction. Words always have consequences.
In addition, there are economic risks. In an environment marked by political conflict, turmoil and uncertainty, the IMF’s tough program will be much more difficult to implement. Indeed, measures that will bring economic hardship to the entire population will require the broadest possible political consensus to be implemented effectively. Efforts to revive the economy and build investor confidence will be seriously threatened by rising political tensions. A struggling economy is unlikely to recover under tense political circumstances. International rating agencies have been quick to sound warnings in this regard. The latest Fitch report warns that Pakistan’s economic recovery could be hampered by the ongoing political turmoil.
For all these reasons, the government’s plan to ban the PTI is a serious misreading of the benefits to be gained by doing so. This risky gamble also misreads the mood of the country, which is tired and wary of more political conflict and hostility that would further poison the political atmosphere. Such a move would not only seriously endanger the country’s political and economic stability, but also jeopardize Pakistan’s fragile democracy. Amid warnings of the collapse of the constitution, the government should stop pursuing this path.
The author is a former ambassador to the United States, the United Kingdom and the United Nations.
Published in Dawn on July 22, 2024
