Israel has dealt a major blow to Hezbollah. The victory it seeks may be elusive.

it has been A devastating week For Hezbollah and the Lebanese people.

Group Pagers and Walkie-talkies Dozens of people were killed and thousands injured, many of them Hezbollah members, in the Israeli attack on Beirut. Two Supreme CommandersIsrael says it has bombed 1,600 militant sites across a wide swath of Lebanon. Killed hundreds of people And thousands of people were forced to evacuate.

Israel said its goal was to secure its borders and Fleeing a Hezbollah attack Syrian refugees, who were evacuated almost a year ago, will now be able to return to their homes, but despite the tactical success of the recent operation, it is far from clear that this will happen.

“Some, inside and outside the defense establishment, have no idea how to translate these impressive operational achievements into political gain, a real victory that will stop the war in the north,” columnist Nadav Eyal wrote in Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

“As long as Hezbollah retains its firepower, the northern border will never return to normal.”

Hezbollah began shelling Israel the day after an Oct. 7 Hamas attack triggered the war in Gaza. The aim was to pin down Israeli forces in the north and support its ally Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. The Lebanese militant group has said it would stop attacks if a ceasefire was reached in Gaza. That seems increasingly unlikely.

Hezbollah appears to have only responded to last week’s escalation of tensions with a limited response, firing hundreds of rockets and drones into northern Israel, including much further from the border than in previous attacks, but causing few casualties and only sporadic damage.

But experts say Iran could withstand an Israeli attack and likely has the most powerful weapons in reserve.

Israel’s air power is limited

Images of the Israeli military attack kicking up clouds of dust on Monday looked eerily familiar.

The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the NATO operation in Libya in 2011, and the US-led war against the Islamic State in 2014 all began with massive air strikes lighting up the sky. In each case, the conflicts lasted for months or even years, and ground troops played a key role.

Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip began with nearly three weeks of intense air strikes across the strip, followed by a full-scale ground invasion. Nearly a year later, Hamas continues to resist, taking scores of hostages.

Israel has previously set a more limited goal for Hezbollah – not to disarm or defeat the Lebanese militant group, but to agree to a new deal in which its militants would withdraw from the border and cease attacks.

But that may not be possible without a ground invasion.

There is also the risk of mission creep, as the US experienced after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan continued for years after the toppling of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban: NATO airstrikes initially aimed at preventing a feared massacre in Benghazi morphed into a seven-month regime change operation. Libya has yet to fully recover.

Hezbollah probably has capabilities we haven’t seen yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant boasted that tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and missiles were destroyed in Monday’s strikes alone.

“This is the most difficult week for Hezbollah since it was founded,” he added. “The chain of command, the terrorists themselves at each level, their firepower and morale have been hit.”

Hezbollah acknowledges that it has suffered heavy blows, but even if Gallant’s assessment is correct, it still has significant resources.

“The rocket forces are still active and Hezbollah has absorbed the first shockwaves. The battle has just begun,” said Qasim Kassir, a former Hezbollah member who wrote a book about the group. “Hezbollah is only using a fraction of its capabilities.”

The militant group, formed with Iranian backing after Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982, seeks to destroy Israel. It has survived countless battles with the Israeli military, replaced several killed commanders over the years and rearmed after a month-long war in 2006.

Hezbollah claims to have around 100,000 fighters and, before the recent fighting, was thought to have around 150,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range and precision-guided missiles capable of hitting anywhere inside Israel.

More sophisticated weapons are likely being held in reserve to avoid triggering all-out war.

Sarit Zehabi, a former Israeli military intelligence analyst and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focused on the northern border, said Hezbollah has weapons hidden in various parts of the country, including in areas near Beirut where it has a strong presence.

“Hezbollah was building in redundancies, so they had their weapons and infrastructure spread all over the place, which is why they were hitting so many targets, because they had strikes all over the place,” she said.

Hezbollah is far more militarily advanced than Hamas, has a much larger area of ​​operation, has more extensive supply lines with more direct links to Iran, and a network of tunnels that may be even more extensive than that in Gaza.

In the case of a ground invasion, Hezbollah fighters Thousands of fighters from Iranian-backed Brotherhood groups from Iraq, Yemen and other regions;

There is no good option either way

Israel has no immediate plans for a ground invasion but says it is prepared and has deployed thousands of battle-hardened troops from Gaza to the northern border. If an air campaign fails to bring Hezbollah to its knees, Israeli leaders would be tempted to send in Hezbollah.

Even if the aim is simply to secure a buffer zone to make the north more secure, the risks are great.

While most Israelis would be immune to an air battle due to the distance and Israel’s missile defense systems, a ground invasion would mean further casualties and prolonged fighting for soldiers and reservists already exhausted by a year of war in Gaza.

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Hezbollah waged an 18-year rebellion against Israel the last time it occupied Lebanon, eventually forcing it to withdraw, and another long-term occupation could see it pay a similar price.

Israel has already faced international criticism over its war in Gaza. Topcoats of the worldit risks further isolating itself if it launches a similar campaign in Lebanon.

Hezbollah also has few good options.

To halt rocket fire into the north in the face of Israeli pressure would likely be seen by its backers, and its patron, Iran, as a humiliating surrender and an act of abandonment of the Palestinians.

Escalating the attacks by firing more sophisticated rockets or targeting major cities like Tel Aviv could invite a more devastating Israeli counterattack or even an all-out war that would devastate Lebanon and risk Hezbollah being blamed.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has already been accused by many Lebanese of tying Lebanon’s fate to Iran and inviting war at this time. Financially bankrupt.

As a result, Israel continues to launch increasingly fierce attacks while Hezbollah makes do with a relatively restrained response.

Things may get even worse for Hezbollah and the Lebanese people in the coming weeks.

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Associated Press writers Melanie Lydman in Tel Aviv and Bassem Mrou in Beirut contributed to this report.