CNN
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As efforts intensify to secure a ceasefire in Gaza ahead of the resumption of formal negotiations scheduled for this week, Israel and the United States are preparing for a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
The mediators urged Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table in a new effort to reach a ceasefire agreement after the recent assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders and vows of retaliation by Iran and its Lebanese proxy threatened to derail the talks.
Negotiations are due to resume on Thursday in either Cairo or Doha. Last week the main intermediaries in the Israel-Hamas talks – the United States, Egypt and Qatar – said they would present a “final bridge proposal” at the meeting and urged both sides to attend.
A major Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel could derail ceasefire talks, which U.S. officials say were progressing before the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran blames Israel for the attack, which Israel has neither claimed nor denied.
In a joint statement on Sunday night, France, Germany and Britain backed calls by the warring sides to reach an agreement, saying “further delay is unacceptable” given the lingering threat of regional conflict.
The White House said Monday that it shared Israel’s concerns and expectations of an upcoming Iranian attack, and noted that it was increasing U.S. troop posture in the region in preparation for Iranian retaliation.
“At this time it is difficult to assess what the effect of an attack, if any, by Iran or its proxies would be,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
But State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel said at a separate press conference on Monday that “we fully expect these talks to continue to move forward.” Patel did not say who the US believes is the biggest obstacle to reaching an agreement, but said the responsibility for agreeing to a ceasefire lies with Hamas.
Israel has announced it will send a delegation to Thursday’s talks, but Hamas has not confirmed it will attend, although it has indicated it still wants a deal.
Following Haniya’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his death “will not be in vain” and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned that “blood revenge” for the killing would be “guaranteed”.
Iranian President Massoud Pezechkian doubled down on the threat in a phone call with Vatican officials on Monday, saying the assassination justified Iran’s right to “self-defense” and “respond to aggressors,” Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported.
There are some indications that Iran might abandon plans to attack Israel if a ceasefire agreement is reached, but Iran’s UN mission said Saturday that Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s alleged killing of Haniyeh was “completely unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire,” adding that Iran had the right to self-defense.
The US and Israel continued to prepare for this scenario over the weekend. The Pentagon announced Sunday evening that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had deployed the USS Georgia, a missile submarine, to the Middle East and expedited the arrival of an aircraft carrier strike group to the region. The US also provided Israel with $3.5 billion to buy US weapons and military equipment, months after it was approved by Congress. And on Monday, the Israeli military suspended vacation flights for its full-time personnel in preparation for an attack.
Iran’s UN mission said it hoped any attacks on Israel would be “timed so as not to adversely affect a potential ceasefire.”
“There have always been direct and mediated official channels between Iran and the United States for the exchange of messages, the details of which neither side wants to disclose,” he added.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group in southern Lebanon, fired about 30 rockets into northern Israel on Sunday night. Rocket attacks from Lebanon into Israel have occurred almost daily since the start of the war in Gaza, but Israeli authorities fear a major Hezbollah counterattack following the assassination of Hezbollah’s top commander, Fouad Shukr, outside Beirut last month.
But with the world keeping its eyes on Iranian airspace and the Israeli-Lebanese border, the worst of the weekend fighting was again confined to the Gaza Strip, where Israeli forces attacked a mosque and a school in Gaza City on Saturday, killing at least 93 Palestinians, according to local officials.
The Israeli attack drew global condemnation as the number of Palestinians killed in the 10-month war nears 40,000. Qatar and Egypt condemned the attack as a violation of international law, and the US National Security Council said the White House was “deeply concerned” by reports of civilian casualties. Three mediators then renewed their urging on the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it targeted a Hamas headquarters and killed several fighters, but the attack was a reminder that despite previous claims of eliminating Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip, the militant group is regrouping in areas previously thought to have been cleared.
After Haniyeh’s assassination, Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar, a Gaza leader and one of the masterminds of the October 7 Israeli attack, as its new political bureau chief, signalling that Hamas’ most radical faction had seized power and further dampened hopes for a ceasefire.
But following a call by mediators last week to resume talks, Hamas has demanded a plan to implement existing proposals put forward by U.S. President Joe Biden in July, rather than pursuing further negotiations.
“Out of concern and responsibility for our people and its interests, Hamas calls on the mediators not to seek further negotiations or new proposals, but to present a plan to implement what was presented and agreed to by the movement on July 2, 2024, based on Biden’s vision and UN Security Council resolutions, and to force the occupying forces (Israel) to implement it,” Hamas said in a statement on Sunday.
A regional source familiar with the negotiations told CNN on Monday that Hamas plans to take part in diplomatic talks. The organization’s conflicting messages suggest each side involved in the negotiations is seeking to gain an advantage and put pressure on the other ahead of crucial negotiations.
Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries have told Israel that Sinwar wants a deal, an Israeli source familiar with the matter told CNN. US officials have made it clear to their Israeli counterparts that now is the time to make a deal to prevent a regional war, the source said.
But despite growing pressure at home to help return the hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stonewalled attempts to reach a deal.
“No one knows what Bibi wants,” one Israeli source said, using Netanyahu’s nickname.
Following Israeli media reports of a closed-door meeting between Defense Minister Yoav Galant and parliament, Prime Minister Netanyahu accused him of adopting “anti-Israel rhetoric”.
Gallant reportedly told lawmakers that he proposed a preemptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon in October but that Netanyahu does not support it and that the conditions for such an attack have now changed. He also reportedly called Netanyahu’s usual slogan of “total victory” “nonsense.”
The remarks infuriated Netanyahu, prompting him to issue a statement criticizing the Israeli defence minister. “The prime minister should have attacked Sinwal, who has refused to send a delegation to the negotiations and remains the only obstacle to the hostage deal,” Netanyahu said in a written statement.
Responding to criticism of X, Gallant said: “I am determined to continue the fight until our war objectives are achieved, Hamas is dismantled and our hostages are returned.”
Gallant did not directly address his leaked comments, but said leaks from “highly sensitive forums” were one of the “weaknesses discovered during the war” and “we have to deal with this seriously.”
“Tough days ahead for us require us to remain resolute and take strong defensive and offensive action,” Gallant said.
