After a flurry of pre-draft rumors and claims of crazy player trades and shocking picks, the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft was made up primarily of players we predicted would be selected in the first round. MLB teams selected 74 players on day one, with 66 of them ranked in my top 100.
Of the first 30 picks (the true first round), 25 were ranked in my top 31. There were no big shocks, no players outside the top 100 were taken in the first round, no outrageous picks, and for the most part, the best players were taken high in the draft.
Here are some general observations and predictions for each team throughout the first round. We’ll be providing team-by-team summaries for all 30 clubs later this week, so if we don’t see your team mentioned here, please stay tuned.
Cleveland Guardians: They had the first pick and selected Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, one of only two viable options in my opinion. The Guardians then selected high school pitcher Braylon Doughty with the 36th pick in Competitive Balance Round A (CBA), which would likely absorb most of the savings from the likely under-slot trade with Bazzana. With their second pick (48th), the Guardians took North Carolina State catcher Jacob Cozart, who had a quietly great year at the plate for the Wolfpack. I think the Guardians wisely picked two everyday players at center field and then selected a very good high school pitcher.
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies took Golden Spikes Award winner Charlie Condon, who I projected to be No. 1, and added another first-round pick in University of Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht at No. 38 in the CBA. Brecht is a high school pitcher in a college pitcher’s body, so to speak, but if anyone needs to bet on a promising pitcher, it’s the Rockies.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks took two players from my top 15, high school outfielder Slade Caldwell (29th) and University of Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (31st). Caldwell is a small outfielder from Arkansas who would be higher if he was 6 feet tall, but he hits and defends really well. Waldschmidt was one of the best hitters in the college group, but he likely dropped due to team concerns about an ACL injury that ended his 2023 season. They selected high school infielder J.D. Dix from Wisconsin, who is committed to Wake Forest, with the 35th pick, then went on to draft Puerto Rican catcher Ivan Luciano (64th), their final pick of the day, quite high. Luciano will likely be picked below the slot.
Jack Cariannone was announced as a two-way player. (Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)
Kansas City Royals: I don’t think Jack Caglianone is a two-way player, and I don’t think the Royals think he is, even though they announced him as such. He has the power the Royals have always wanted throughout franchise history, and it makes perfect sense to take him at No. 6. He was one of the best players there was anyway. I also like left-hander David Shields at No. 41. He’s highly rated for form and feel, and I’m all for drafting a high school kid who has those qualities and might have great velocity in a few years.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees: If you don’t like New York, skip this note. I love the two Mets picks. Carson Benge (19th) is a real prospect as a hitter who makes very strong contact and needs some small tweaks to get some power. Jonathan Santucci (46th) is a left-handed pitcher from Duke who is worthy of a first-round pick, but has injury concerns as he left 2023 spring training with a broken elbow. Santucci is a second-round pick, and taking a first-round pitcher like that with a second-round pick is a great gamble. Meanwhile, the Yankees took my personal favorite in this draft, right-handed pitcher Ben Hess from Alabama, with their first-round pick (26th), followed by right-handed pitcher Bryce Cunningham from Vanderbilt (53rd). Both seem like the type of pitchers who could thrive in the Yankees’ player development system.
Seattle Mariners: I’ve heard the Mariners are looking for pitchers, and they’ve got two of my top 30 pitchers, switch pitcher Jurangelo Chinche (15th) and high school right-hander Ryan Sloan (55th). (Commissioner Rob Manfred announced Chinche as a “switch-handed pitcher.” What? We don’t say “switch-handed hitter.” A switch hitter, a switch pitcher.) Sloan is truly a versatile player now, and if he can prove he has 100 mph max velocity, a plus changeup and can throw enough strikes, the Mariners should be aggressive in acquiring him. The Mariners’ system is hitter-heavy, and they happened to get two first-round pitchers in the draft.
Washington Nationals: The Nationals did well with three of their picks. They acquired one from the Royals on Saturday in exchange for Hunter Harvey, then took Wake Forest shortstop/center fielder Seaver King with their first pick (10th) and promising high school infielder Luke Dickerson with their third pick (44th). They took University of California catcher Caleb Lomavita with their new pick (39th). It was decent value with that pick, but I’m not impressed with a guy as impatient at the plate as he is.
Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies Surprise Picks: The biggest surprises in the first round, by position, were Braylon Payne (Milwaukee) and Dante Noli (Philadelphia). Payne was taken 17th overall. I ranked him 78th, despite his 80 speed, because he needs to get stronger to take advantage of his speed. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but it will take time and there’s a risk he won’t get the strength he needs. Noli was taken 27th overall, but I ranked him 65th, primarily because he’s a 19-year-old coming out of high school who will be 20 in October. He certainly has the ability, and I think he could get some more power if he loosens up his lower body. I’m not saying either of them were bad picks, but I didn’t think either of them would be taken in the first round.
Vance Honeycutt went 22nd to the Orioles. (Ben McKeown/Associated Press)
Ranking of famous players: Most of the big-name players who came into the draft were taken lower than their fame would lead you to believe. Caglianone, arguably the most well-known player in this class, was taken sixth. Not bad, but not the 1-1 that the hype would lead you to believe. Vance Honeycutt barely made it into the first round at 22nd out of Baltimore. Tommy White, aka Tommy Tunks, the top recruit in the country in 2022, ended up being taken 40th by the Athletics. The industry is pretty good at ignoring the hype and evaluating players.
Best players available on Day 2
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas (34th) Kevin Bazzell, C/3B, Texas Tech (35th) Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (49th) Domarion Terrell, OF, Thompson High School, Alabama (52nd) Gage Miller, 3B, Alabama (54th) Carson Wiggins, RHP, Rowland High School, Oklahoma (55th) Jared Jones, 1B, Louisiana State (57th) Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker High School, Alabama (61st) Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot High School, Idaho (63rd) Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern (65th)
This year’s list of the best players still available looks a bit different than usual. Usually, it’s mostly high school players with big signing bonuses, but this year the top three are college hitters and only four of the best 10 players remaining are high school players. D’Marion Terrell and Connor Gatwood are both committed to Auburn, Dax Whitney to Oregon State, and Carson Wiggins to Arkansas. I think these six college players will be quickly removed from the selection unless there’s some medical issue or non-baseball factor that I haven’t heard of.
(Top photo: LM Otero/AP)
