The conflict between President Ruto and his deputy Ligaty Gachagua continues to escalate violently, causing unrest in the mountain region, which was a political stronghold of the UDA in the last general election.
In recent days, it has become clear that plans to impeach President Gachagua are in the works, with political observers seeing rifts between the two parties plunging the mountain region into unrest.
Intrigues and conspiracies to control the Mount Kenya region are intensifying ahead of the 2027 elections, with political sources saying two camps of leaders from the region are meeting separately to strategise for the formation of a political party in the region.
The two groups do not cooperate but hope to mobilize the region under one political entity ahead of the 2027 elections as they prepare to form alliances with friendly regions.
Spokespeople for each team said they would deliberate and announce their next course of action once everything was in order.
Mr Ruto and Mr Gachagua have repeatedly attacked each other, unleashing their allies in a carefully orchestrated proxy war.
The decision by 68 Mt Kenya region MPs to sever ties with Gachagua and endorse Interior Minister Kitule Kindiki highlights the strong political undercurrents that threaten to sweep the rug from under the Democratic Party’s feet.
The decision to ignore a church event in Nyeri where President Gachagua was guest of honour is indicative, as is the decision by a group of County Councillors representing 11 counties in the Mount Kenya region to denounce him as a mastermind.
In a confessional interview on Citizen TV on Friday night, in which he revealed he had been “abused and called stupid by senior officials at the airport” for fighting with relatives and aides during the 2022 election campaign, and also complained about being removed from the WhatsApp group that manages the presidential diary, there was no doubt that the relationship between the two top Kenya Kwanzaa leaders has been irreparably damaged.
It remains to be seen what strategy the president will employ to maintain the support of the region that voted for him down to the last man in the 2022 elections.
Gachagua is seen as a hot topic in the 2027 succession race due to his growing influence in Mount Kenya politics, and attention is focused on how he best thrives following his falling out with his boss.
Political observers agree that the Mt Kenya region will still play a central role in succession politics in 2027 given its high political awareness, voting strength and desire to safeguard its socio-economic and political interests.
As the fight with Gachagua intensifies, it is clear the president will choose a new candidate as his running mate.
It remains to be seen how he will navigate the power struggles and conflicts of interest among different ethnic and regional voting blocs as he puts together a winning team.
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With the President openly hinting at a woman being his running mate and staunch supporters of DP Gachagua also indicating they are considering having their own political vehicle, it is clear that the UDA is sailing into uncharted waters.
There is a perception that powerful forces within the UDA are fragmenting Mt Kenya into various ethnic divisions to weaken its voting power after realising that the people would not solidly support the re-election of President Ruto.
On the other hand, some argue that the decision to weaken Gachagua was aimed at weakening his political position and making him politically weaker so that he would not pose a political threat to his boss if he were to run for president in 2027.
Former Moro state lawmaker Njenga Mungai said President Ruto had unleashed the same political cabal on Gachagua that he used to undermine President Uhuru Kenyatta. “This time, the cabal has turned on one of their own people.”
Mungai added: “We warned Gachagua and his team not to fall prey to President Ruto’s machinations when they blindly followed him without any political party, but now they are at the mercy of the president.”
A former member of parliament who is also the chairman of Jubilee Party Elders Council has warned leaders in the Mt Kenya region, saying turning the region into a political battleground will jeopardise development plans.
“The issues in the Mt Kenya region will be resolved politically, which is why the leaders need to set up a political organisation to negotiate with other regions for power,” Mungai added.
Mungai maintained that the Jubilee Party has its own vision and roadmap to come to power alongside other like-minded parties but “we will not fall prey to President Ruto’s divisive politics”.
The former lawmaker said the Mt Kenya region remains a powerful political force and will determine the outcome of the 2027 general elections.
Political strategist Kabwe Matenge claims President Ruto’s strategy to choose a successor will revolve around Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who is serving his second term, Kindiki or Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro. Matenge added that President Ruto has floated the name of Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga after reconciling with ODM leader Raila Odinga.
“Ann Waiguru and Gladys Wanga are two possible running mates for Ruto if he follows through on his indication to appoint a female vice president,” Mathenge said.
“Meanwhile, the promotion of Kindiki to chieftaincy of the Mt Kenya region by Ruto’s allies indicates that Ruto is considering picking Kindiki as his running mate in case Gachagua loses the election,” Mathenge added.
“Ruto is a man walking on the edge of a sword. The collapse of the Mount Kenya voting bloc that brought him to power signals his defeat,” said a political strategist who managed the presidential campaigns of both Mwai Kibaki and Kenyan President Uhuru in the Rift Valley region.
Mathenge said even if the president retains Gachagua as his running mate in 2027, his re-election would face headwinds in the Mt Kenya region, where voters are disappointed with his administration’s performance and suffer from a string of unfulfilled promises.
Political commentator Julius Kariuki said it would be difficult for Ruto to replace Gachagua with someone else “because of power politics in the Mt Kenya region where the DP has grown to be the dominant political force”.
Dr Kariuki said there is a perception in the region that Kenya’s Kwanza administration is not up to the task and is undermining the DP to cover up its failure.
“Even leaders and residents of Mt Kenya who were previously opposed to Mr Gachagua are now speaking favourably of him because of the issues he has raised about the need for government to fulfil its promises to the electorate,” he added. Kariuki said attempts to stoke division between Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West would fail as the people see themselves as one people.
Kariuki said none of the four leaders floated as possible candidates to replace Gachagua had the power to garner a significant number of votes in their regions and propel Ruto to power.
“Therefore, if President Ruto selects Gladys Wanga as his running mate, there is a high possibility that she will not be able to garner the votes that Odinga got from Nyanza district. The votes in Nyanza district will not match those in Mount Kenya district and President Ruto will lose there,” he added.
Political strategists added that Ruto would also face political backlash from his support base in western Kenya if he ignored Musalia Mudavadi, secretary of state for religious affairs in the Prime Minister’s Office, and appointed Wanga as leader of the Democratic Party.
Former ODM-nominated senator Harold Kipchumba said the president would be faced with a significant political dilemma in choosing Gachagua’s replacement: “The president has new allies in Nyanza and he wants to please them, but at the same time he wants to please the Mt Kenya region, where the majority of his voters are.”
The former senator said Ruto and his team used the same political playbook that Ruto had written when he was vice president to former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“He used Gachagua, Kimani Ichungwa Ndindi Nyoro and others to undermine the President and weaken him politically in the Mt Kenya region,” he said, adding:
“President Ruto has been trying all sorts of dirty tricks to undermine Gachagua but the question is how far he will go as the Mt Kenya region remains a powerful voting bloc and currently has a solid lead for the DP.”
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Kipchumba said the numbers in the Mt Kenya region, their ability to come together as a region and rally friendly regions together would determine the outcome of the next presidential elections.
“If Mr Ruto breaks up his alliance with Mr Gachagua, I predict he will have no choice because the entire Mt Kenya region will rally together to oppose his re-election.”
Kipchumba said that without Odinga’s name on the presidential ballot paper, voter apathy would spread among voters in Nyanza and President Ruto would not be able to garner enough votes from the region if he chose Wanga as his running mate. The Luhya vote is fragmented and if he were to part ways with Gachagua, Kipchumba said, it would be a tough task for the president to garner enough votes in Western Kenya to make up for his loss in Mount Kenya.
Former Baringo East MP Joseph Rotondo said President Ruto will seek re-election in 2027 and will still have many supporters from the Mt Kenya region.
“The President has Nyanza in his camp, the West, the Rift Valley and the Coast regions and will still be able to command the support of a significant number of voters in the Mt Kenya region, so he is certain to return to the presidency,” Rotondo said.
Rotondo added that Mt Kenya residents in different parts of the Rift Valley region are likely to support President Ruto for re-election in 2027.
Former Subukia MP Koigi wa Wamwere said President Ruto was “still using the ethnic card to try and win over voters, just like his predecessor Moi did”.
The former lawmaker said President Ruto’s collaboration with Odinga and the infighting between leaders of the Mount Kenya region were “part of a wider plan by Ruto to maintain power through divide and rule policies”.
Wamwere, who has been vocal in his opposition to ethnic discrimination, said the colonial government had tried to divide communities in the Mt Kenya region on ethnicity basis but was unsuccessful.
“We are not living in a different time. President Ruto is still playing the ethnic card with Mount Kenya leaders, Nyanza leaders and Western Kenya leaders. Appointing a running mate based on the ethnic card and not on merit or competence makes no sense for Kenya,” Wamwere added.