Power. President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga have plenty of power. They control allies and significant sections of the populace.
At any other time in history, this new partnership between these two men would have contributed to an unparalleled consolidation of power, and it may still do so, especially in the chamber that is perhaps most important to the head of state: Parliament.
If recent history is any guide, Raila is guaranteeing the president near-absolutist powers in parliament. That was the case after the opposition leader shook hands with former President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018, when Raila was forthright in criticising government excesses.
Ruto is sure to consolidate his grip on power in parliament as he has yet to face any significant resistance from within his own party, rendering any minor opposition from a disgruntled Azimio Ra Umoja One Kenya Party largely irrelevant.
For almost two years, the president has handily defeated the opposition, including Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement. As Nyaribali Chache MP Daniel Manduku recently put it, without ODM “the opposition is dead” – or at least the opposition as Kenyans know it.
Ruto’s gain in control of parliament came at a steep price: While he gained allies who will help him weather the onslaught of relentless Gen Z and millennial onslaughts, observers have concluded he has lost the support of the people.
Vice President Ligaty Gachagua came to this conclusion a few weeks ago when she wondered how much the once-popular government had declined.
“How did this happen? We only recently elected a very popular government and when did the rain start hitting us?” Gachagua posed.
The country had never seen such large-scale protests as those seen on June 25, which led to the breach of parliament and ended with a series of concessions by what many called a “restrained” president, the most significant of which was the near-dissolution of the cabinet.
And when he reappointed six former ministers on Friday, Ruto squandered an opportunity to set things right, sparking a backlash against his cabinet announcement.
“By ignoring Gen Z, the president is signaling that he has no intention of changing,” argues leadership and management professor Guitire Naituri. “He has promised a professional cabinet, so he has shown that it is difficult to attach the truth to him.”
Nearly two years after bragging about defeating Raila, Ruto was forced to invite him to a banquet. In an ideal situation, the Head of State would have secured a ministerial post for his ally, as he did until he was forced to bow down to Gen Z.
By inviting the opposition to dinner, the president is depriving his friends of benefits that could have gone to them, and in many ways he is ceding some power to his biggest rivals in exchange for political survival, given that some of his appointees have loyalty to another power center: Raila and Gachagua.
Before reaching out to the opposition, Mr Ruto helped put out a fire at the home of the deputy president. Mr Gachagua’s allies in Mount Kenya are stepping up pressure, demanding most of the cabinet posts.
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Prime Minister Ruto appears to have caved in to their demands, choosing six of his 11 ministers from Mt Kenya at the expense of forming a cabinet with a national perspective.
“It is too early to comment on the cabinet until the complete list is out,” Uriri MP Mark Nyamita said. “The face of Kenya is yet to be seen. We are anxious and hopeful.”
Politicians in the region have often been nervous about the alliance that included Raila, which prompted Uhuru to leave Jubilee Party, but Prof Naituri argued that this was not an issue among Gen Z and millennials whose movements cut across ethnic lines.
No doubt it was Ruto’s feud with Gachagua, and pressure from Gen Z and millennials, that forced him to seek a truce with Raila. Journalist Sam Gituku recently assessed that Ruto’s invitation to join the opposition was to “diversify political risk”.
For a month now, young people have been directing their blame solely at the president, but in recent days Raila has been on the receiving end of some of the criticism he avoided when he was not taking part in anti-government protests.
In this case, Ruto’s gain is Raila’s loss. Just like when he partnered with Uhuru, Raila is running the risk of assuming some of Ruto’s burdens, which was not always well received by the masses.
“Raila has said he is not going to save Ruto but the country and I trust his judgement,” said Opiyo Wandayi, Minority Leader in the National Assembly.
Throughout his career spanning more than three decades, the former prime minister has earned a reputation as a man of the people, winning unquestioning loyalty among his supporters and mobilising them to fight his battles.
Many of Raila’s most ardent supporters are likely to follow him into an alliance with Ruto, which would be a win for the president and potentially support him in his 2027 re-election bid.
But Timothy Onduru, a historian who teaches at Moi University, argues Raila will lose others.
“To some extent, Raila may lose some of Azimio’s supporters, especially among those opposed to the broad-based government,” Dr Onduru argued.
Indeed, in recent weeks, his supporters have been urging him to change course, something unusual for a veteran opposition figure.
About two weeks ago, Raila was all set to enter talks with Ruto to form a coalition government, but after an online backlash he backed out a few days later.
“Young people are telling me I don’t need a handshake. Message go home,” Raila captioned a photo he posted on his social media accounts that showed him with Senators Edwin Sifuna and Eddie Okech.
Backed into a corner by mourners at his funeral in Kakamega last weekend, Raila made it clear he was only interested in a people-led dialogue and not one convened by the Kenya Kwanzaa Alliance.
Addressing an excited crowd in Kwale, southeast of Nairobi, the following day, Raila made it clear there would be “no dialogue” ahead of talks that were due to begin last Monday.
This came ahead of reports that his ODM party had issued a statement in support of dialogue, accepting about seven seats awarded to the larger Azimio coalition.
Raila’s contradictory statements in recent days undoubtedly risk creating the impression of indecisiveness that he has never displayed before.
In this context, he is losing support from Gen Z who initially urged him to stay away from the protests, saying they had done enough for Kenya. Many are accusing him of siding with the oppressor, Ruto, and they want him to step down.
“Raila tried to cut the tree but failed. If another person comes along and is more successful, then let him finish the job,” said university lecturer Francis Owaka.
Dr Owaka, a philosopher, described the former Prime Minister’s actions as a betrayal and argued that it could tarnish his legacy, a view agreed with Prof Naituri.
“Ruit will win big and Raila will lose big. Ruto is hugely unpopular and Raila will exonerate him the same way he exonerated Uhuru. Uhuru committed crimes equal to those of Ruto but is remembered by some as a good man. Raila is popular with the masses which is why he was appointed ‘people’s president’. Raila will end up shouldering the sins of Ruto,” Prof Naithuri said, claiming the former prime minister would have won the last election if he had avoided Uhuru.
Raila will also lose some of Azimio’s friends, including former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, who was a strong ally of the former prime minister for the past decade, leaving the Azimio leader bitter after falling out with loyal allies, some of whom will likely become Raila’s friends again.
Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, he parted ways with his chief of staff, Musalia Mudavadi, and Speaker of Parliament, Moses Wetangura, resulting in Raila losing to Ruto by a margin he could have covered had he retained his old friend.
A decade earlier, he had lost Mr Ruto to Mr Uhuru and the Rift Valley Alliance in the 2007 election, where Mr Ruto ran without Mr Kalonzo’s support after a bitter rivalry between the two.
On Friday, the separatist Azimio faction rejected Ruto’s offer, calling it a betrayal of Kenyans and the ideals of the union.
“We will not participate in or support the proposal for a broad-based national unity government led by the Kenya Kwanza regime. This is a betrayal of Kenyans, especially Gen Z and millennials, who have made the supreme sacrifice to rid the country of the disastrous Kenya Kwanza regime,” Kalonzo said.
But it is not all well for Raila. He is looking to Kenya Kwanza to realise his latest political dream: chairmanship of the African Union Commission. Since Ruto recommended him for the job, Raila has softened his attacks on the executive, perhaps careful not to appear hostile.
For his restless allies, gaining status would also be a victory. For years, Raila’s allies supported him in the hope of landing high-paying jobs. Successive electoral defeats have pushed them into political Siberia.
In recent months, Azimio and other ODM leaders have grown increasingly anxious about Raila’s inevitable retirement and are hoping he will succeed them when he retires.
Allies of Ruto and Raila have argued that the country stands to benefit from a national dialogue amid alleged threats to national stability, a view echoed by Wandei, who said the country should always remain open to dialogue.
“It is not certain individuals who benefit more than the country. True dialogue directly benefits the people. Dialogue must always be encouraged because it is valueless. Dialogue should be a way of life,” said the Ugunja MP, a view shared by historian Dr Onduru.
“You can’t ruin a country. If there is political stability there will be no losers,” Dr Onduru added.
