Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s brutal summer ends with resignation

It’s been a tough summer for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

A series of scandals involving the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida’s closest allies within the party and even his family have put his job in jeopardy.

That this comes at a time when the cost of living is soaring and discontent is simmering within the LDP does not bode well for the embattled leader.

His approval ratings plummeted to record lows, all the while the test of a leadership election scheduled for September loomed.

While some observers had said Abe would likely seek reelection, his announcement that he was withdrawing from the race was not particularly shocking, as it meant he would not be prime minister when the LDP chooses a new president in September.

Diplomatic victories – an ambitious budget for military expansion, deeper ties with the United States and a historic détente with South Korea – could not save him.

“The clear first step to demonstrate that the LDP is changing is for me to step down,” the 67-year-old prime minister told a roomful of reporters on Wednesday in his typically calm demeanor.

Apart from what he said, everything else about him suggested it was business as usual.

Political veteran Kishida Fumio became prime minister in 2021. His predecessor, Suga Yoshihide, resigned just a year into the position following sagging approval ratings as Japan weathered the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.

One month after becoming prime minister, Kishida led the LDP in the general election and contributed to the coalition government’s victory.

Those who know him well and have worked with him have told the BBC he is a polite, intelligent man and a fairly conservative politician, and some say he is a shrewd strategist who should not be easily dismissed.

Kishida’s mild-mannered demeanor belies the fact that he can also be unpredictable and stubborn, such as his risky and sudden decision to disband his own faction within the party, which led to the dissolution of other factions that are as old as the party itself and are a vital source of patronage and funding.

For months, observers had suggested the prime minister’s position was unsustainable, given his indecisive handling of the controversy surrounding him — and he held his own despite growing opposition within the LDP — but the end was clear.

“The public is very tired right now,” Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at Temple University in Japan, said a few weeks before Kishida decided to step down. “The tiredness is building up. And it’s not just about the fundraising scandal.”

The LDP started the year mired in controversy. In December, allegations emerged that senior party officials had embezzled millions of dollars in party funds, leading to the resignation of four cabinet ministers and several deputy ministers, including a key ally of the prime minister.

As further details emerged from the prosecutor’s investigation, the LDP ultimately announced that 85 party members had not properly reported their income.

It was the latest in a series of controversies that have tarnished his term in office. The previous year he fired his son, who was employed as his private secretary, after it was revealed he had abused his position to throw a party at Downing Street.

And the LDP was already reeling from reports of its ties to the controversial Unification Church, which is allegedly linked to the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

As 2024 dragged on, the effects of those scandals lingered – and new ones emerged.

In April, the LDP lost two seats in by-elections after one party member was accused of vote buying and another resigned amid suspicions of involvement in a fundraising investigation.

Then in July, the Defense Ministry was rocked by allegations of mishandling classified and sensitive information, harassment of subordinates, and fraud, leading to a series of disciplinary actions, suspensions, and even firings.

According to an Asahi Shimbun survey, at this point the LDP’s approval rating had fallen to a record low of 19%, the lowest since 2000.

Kishida vowed to tackle the crisis “head-on,” but his handling of the situation has also come under criticism.

It was a rare appearance before the Political Ethics Committee, but he appeared unsure and reluctant to say much.

In June, his coalition government pushed through campaign finance reform but was met with public skepticism. “They spent a lot of time on it and nothing came of it. It was too late. He should have done something sooner,” Murakami said.

And in June, he tried to appease disgruntled voters and ease the effects of inflation with temporary tax cuts, but people didn’t seem to think they were enough.

“The situation has been tense at all times, and we have dealt with many challenges both at home and abroad,” Kishida said in late June, reflecting on his time in office as he marked 1,000 days in the position.

June also saw widespread talk of a “post-Kishida” candidate, attracting national media attention, as disgruntled party members feared an unpopular leader would become a prime ministerial candidate ahead of next year’s general election.

“[They]think that if he takes the helm, they will be doomed. They are panicking,” Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies and history at Temple University, told the BBC at the time.

There have been several corruption scandals in the past, but this one comes at a tough time.

“The economic situation has influenced people’s thinking,” Murakami said. “People have suffered greatly from the (COVID-19) crisis. They can barely pay their bills. But now they’re looking at politicians who have a lot of money and no intention of paying taxes,” he said, referring to the Liberal Democratic Party’s admission that some lawmakers had not properly declared their income.

While his popularity at home has plummeted, Kishida has performed well on the international stage. Before becoming prime minister, he was Japan’s longest-serving foreign minister. As prime minister, he hosted the G7 summit last year, visited Ukraine and sought to improve ties with South Korea, a key ally against China and North Korea.

His ties to Washington remain strong: He addressed Congress at the invitation of President Biden earlier this year and received a standing ovation.

“Thank you,” he told the audience. “I have never received such a wonderful applause in the Japanese Diet.”

Within Japan, the media slammed the visit, with one headline declaring, “Kishida should not use the summit as a tool for domestic politics.”

If that was his aim, he did not succeed. Kishida was so busy fighting on so many fronts that his party and voters had reached the end of their patience.

“People vote with their wallets,” Professor Kingston said. “It’s great that he parades around NATO, the EU and the US. At the end of the day, I want more pay in my wallet.”

Kishida said the LDP needed to make a new start and needed to convince the public that the party could change.

The opposition remains too weak and divided to be a viable option, but there is deep distrust within the ruling party.

Will a new face at the top unite the LDP and repair its tarnished image? We’ll find out in September.