Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s plans to step back from local politics and take on a continental role have sparked a succession battle and lobbying within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party.
Speaking at his second joint press conference with his Chief of Staff Musalia Mudavadi in Nairobi, Odinga said all was going well in the election campaign for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
“I will continue to focus on the continental election campaign and so I will not be very active in Kenyan politics going forward. However, I am in a transitional period where I am moving from being an active participant in Kenyan politics to continental politics,” he said.
“I will start working on the African continent as soon as I am elected, which will be in February next year,” he said.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, a veteran politician with a reformist record, has already been mentioned as a possible candidate to succeed Odinga at the helm of the party, and party sources say he has the support of fellow governors, particularly in Nyanza and Western provinces.
Professor Anyang Nyong’o, who is serving his final term as Kisumu governor, is also seen as a likely candidate to succeed Odinga. Because ODM gets most of its support from the Luo Nyanza, there is an argument that Odinga’s successor would have to come from the region.
Orengo has remained loyal to Odinga since the death of his father, Jaramogi Oginga, and his courage and fearlessness in speaking truth to power has endeared him to the people, who have been heavily involved in opposition politics for decades.
His political journey with Odinga dates back to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when both men were members of the opposition Young Turks party fighting in the second liberation struggle.
Those pushing for his elevation cite recent party reshuffles that have seen him sidelined in the party’s new leadership line-up.
Orengo was one of the senior ODM politicians recently left out when Odinga announced new faces for key party posts left vacant by those who had been appointed cabinet ministers. Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga was named the party’s national chairperson, replacing John Mbadi, who joined the executive as minister for national economic planning.
The party’s Central Control Committee approved Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nasir, Kisii Governor Simba Alati and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi as deputy leaders of the party, replacing Ali Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya.
Wanga told the Sunday Nation that discussions about who should become leader were premature and that the election should wait until Odinga is inaugurated as AUC leader.
“There is still a long time to go until the elections. The party machinery will have such discussions only after the elections. At this point, it is like trying to inherit a wife while the husband is still alive,” Governor Wanga said.
Orengo has not publicly expressed interest in the role, but recent statements suggest he is keen to take on the role.
When Azimio’s coalition partners began talks last week to remove Odinga from the coalition leadership, the governor, known for his role in the second liberation movement, said even if the former prime minister was removed from the coalition leadership, his replacement could only come from ODM, the largest party in the coalition.
According to Orengo, the leadership of the coalition government after Odinga’s departure will be determined by the strength of the parties within the coalition.
“The next leader of Azimio is a matter of discussion but it must reflect the party’s strength within the party. That is enshrined in the rules of procedure as well as Azimio’s protocol. ODM is undoubtedly a major shareholder in the coalition government,” Orengo said.
“The rules and procedures of the National Assembly and the Senate, as well as the nominations for seats in both houses, will depend on the strength of each party in the coalition,” he added.
Osotsi, one of the party’s deputy leaders, told the Sunday Nation that discussions over a successor were not currently an issue as Odinga does not hold a mainland position. He also said there was no law preventing Raila from staying on in ODM after taking up the AUC position.
“There is no law on earth that would stop Baba from joining a political party. The party he has chosen is ODM. Baba will continue to be part of the ODM team both as a player and as a coach. Baba understands the dual roles very well,” Osotsi said.
“He is more effective and lethal as a coach. As a coach, Baba got Kibaki elected president in the 2002 elections and drove the then stubborn KANU government to political death. I think ODM will remain strong even if Baba steps down to the AU. Those who expect us to emerge from the unlikely collapse of ODM are dreaming,” he added.
