MADISON, Wis. (AP) – Sensing an opportunity in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Republicans are pouring money into the state’s closely watched Senate race to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
Democrats are also ramping up their efforts in races that remain critical to their hopes of holding on to their Senate majority. They maintain an overall spending advantage and argue that the race always intensifies as Election Day approaches.
A loss to Republican candidate Eric Hovde in Wisconsin would make it extremely difficult for Democrats to maintain a majority in a national landscape where Republicans have far fewer seats to defend this year.
The outlook has Republicans feeling optimistic about the race. “It’s clearly a jump ball at this point,” said Alec Zimmerman, a Republican strategist who worked on Sen. Ron Johnson’s winning 2022 campaign.
As of Monday, Democrats were outspending Republicans in advertising in the Wisconsin Senate race, $93 million to $69 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. Mr. Baldwin’s campaign accounts for more than a third of all Democratic advertising spending, while Mr. Hovde relies heavily on outside groups.
But Republicans are investing more in future advertising than Democrats, with $21 million in slots secured between Monday and Nov. 5, compared to $15 million for Democrats. There is. Almost two-thirds of Republicans’ new spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee led by the Senate Minority Leader. Mitch McConnellbooked $13.1 million in advertising spots.
“Momentum is on my side,” Hovde said at a forum in Milwaukee last week. “I’m going to win this race. I’m going to win this race because I stay focused on what’s important.”
Baldwin, who was campaigning with vice presidential candidate Tim Walz in western Wisconsin on Monday, said in a statement to The Associated Press that he was not surprised by the state of the race.
“We always knew the race would be tight,” Baldwin said. “That’s why I’ve worked every day behind the campaign trail to unite Wisconsinites. … I’m confident we have the strength, momentum and message to win next month. Masu.”
Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauf said Hovde has solidified support among the Republican base and has the resources, including outside money, to spread his message. Hovde loaned the campaign at least $13 million of his own money to spend on the race.
To win, Baldauf said, Baldwin just needs to be himself and promote his record.
“That’s one of her strengths and one of the things that separates this race from other Senate races around the country,” Baldauf said. “The fact that people know who she is, she does what she sets out to do and shows up all over Wisconsin.”
Republican strategist Zimmerman said Baldwin faces the toughest political environment of the three races. Zimmerman said Hovde has an advantage on issues such as the economy and immigration and needs to stay focused on those issues to win.
“Wisconsin has always been on the knife edge,” Zimmerman said. “Elections are 50-50 here, and she’s always been the exception. What you’re seeing here is a return to that principle.”
Four of the past six presidential elections were decided in Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point. The U.S. Senate race was not very close, with Baldwin winning his first election in 2012 by nearly six points and winning in 2018 by almost 11 points. But in 2022, Johnson won a third term by just one point.
Mr. Baldwin’s race is important for Democrats, who hold 23 seats in the Senate, three of which are held by independents who caucus to give Democrats a 51-49 majority. By comparison, Republicans hope to keep just 11 seats.
Baldwin said he is employing the same strategy as past campaigns, visiting both red and blue areas of the state and touting his record of fighting for Wisconsin’s farmers and middle class. . This week alone, she was scheduled to be in every major media market in the state.
Reinforcing his bipartisan bona fides, Mr. Baldwin received an endorsement from the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau for his work benefiting the state’s agriculture and dairy industries, making him the first statewide president in more than 20 years. He became the first Democratic candidate to win the election.
Baldwin attacks Hovde as an out-of-reach rug millionaire intent on cutting Social Security and Medicare, repealing the Affordable Care Act, and supporting a national abortion ban. did. The ad draws attention to Mr. Hovde’s role as CEO of H Bancorp and its main subsidiary, Utah-based Sunwest Bank, and the fact that he owns a $7 million property in Laguna Beach, Calif. focused.
Hovde was born in Madison and owns a home there, but claims he has never lived in California full-time.
She also criticized his past comments opposing abortion rights and what Democrats say will restore the federal budget to 2019 levels, leading to deep cuts to popular programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits. He has also criticized the government for expressing support for it.
Mr Hovde said Mr Baldwin was distorting his position. Regarding Social Security, for example, Mr. Hovde only supports raising the retirement age so that people under 40 can receive benefits, and does not want to strip older people of benefits as in Baldwin’s TV ad. , he said.
Mr. Hovde has softened his stance on abortion since he first ran for the Senate in 2012, and Mr. Baldwin has capitalized on that in his ads. Hovde currently won’t vote for a federal ban, saying the issue should be left to individual states.
Hovde casts Baldwin, who has been in elected office for nearly 40 years, as a career politician who hasn’t done enough to support border security or economic aid. He accused her of alienating voters by agreeing to just one debate, scheduled to be broadcast live Friday night.
“I’m going to stay focused on interacting with everyone and answering their questions,” Hovde said last week, criticizing Baldwin for agreeing to only one debate. “I don’t run away from any difficult questions.”
If Hovde wins, Wisconsin will be represented by two Republicans in the Senate for the first time since 1957. But Republicans will need to overcome Democratic momentum, whose candidates have won 14 of the past 17 statewide elections.
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Polling Editor Amelia Thomson DeVoe and Leah Askarinum of The Associated Press Decision Desk contributed from Washington.
