Azimio Party Leader Raila Odinga is received by Musalia Mudavadi in the Prime Minister’s Office during a preparatory meeting for his candidacy for the election of African Union Commission Chairperson on August 20, 2024. (Emmanuel Wanson, Standard)
Fresh political clouds are gathering in Nyanza, Western and Coast provinces, ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political strongholds, as his reunion with President William Ruto sees support for the opposition grow in opposition areas.
The reshuffle has sparked debate over Ruto’s prospects of inheriting Raila’s support base as the experienced opposition leader turns his attention to continental politics.
Observers believe recent events in opposition areas may be a sign that ODM leaders are subtly trying to hand over their support base to President Ruto.
This is a realignment that brings together political brothers who have a long history of working together, despite intermittent hiatuses to pursue personal political goals.
But in the weeks since they formed a broad-based government, the pair appear to be rewriting the script, building a political juggernaut similar to the Pentagon that Raila assembled in 2006, with key influential leaders from key voting blocs.
However, analysts believe that the current situation is leading the ODM leadership to gradually hand over its core support base in the West, Nyanza and Coast to Ruto, allowing the President to make inroads into his base.
They argue that areas where Raila has a lot of support will be the ones most affected by ODM’s collaboration with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza, affecting the 2027 general elections.
Constitutional law scholar Joshua Nyamoli says the appointment of the CS and the government’s renewed energy in taking over as AUC chairman will see Ruto enter a different Nyanza than before.
He said Raila’s supporters accepted the president and wanted a long-term relationship.
They believe Raila is handing power to Ruto because he is not running for president and is seeking an AUC seat.
“At that meeting and at the press conference, Raila hinted at stepping down from the political stage. The question is, where will his supporters go? If you listen to public opinion, the ground is moving towards Ruto,” Nyamoli said.
Raila believes he is showing his supporters the way.
As the changes have taken place, the traditional anti-government rhetoric and contempt expressed by Raila’s allies and supporters towards the Kenya Kwanzaa agenda has disappeared, replaced by praise for the Ruto administration and Raila’s broad-based government.
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This comes as the president intensifies efforts to garner support for his administration in areas that have strongly supported ODM leaders.His strategy has been political appointments, projects and working visits.
Raila sent senior party officials and local leaders to serve under Ruto in the Kwanzaa administration in the three regions, including former deputy prime ministers Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, former party chairman John Mbadi and former political secretary Opiyo Wandai, who all served in Ruto’s cabinet.
The four were the front-runners to succeed Raila long before Raila and Ruto struck a political deal to form a broad-based government, in an underground succession battle simmering within ODM.
Similarly, in Nyanza, Raila’s close aides, led by his brother Oburu Oginga, and the state’s governor, have launched a campaign to rally the state behind the newly formed broad-based government.
Communications researcher and political commentator Dr Charles Nyambuga said Raila was cleverly handing over his support base to Ruto.
“But the success of his strategy will depend heavily on new strongmen emerging from these two regions,” Nyambuga said.
The President will be in Nyanza for four days next week to announce a series of projects and restart those started by former President Uhuru Kenyatta, as well as inspect stalled projects and attend the homecoming ceremony of CSs Mbadi and Wandai.
As part of his jigsaw strategy, the president has also chosen to maintain the loyalty of allies in the region who joined his team through Kenya Kwanzaa.
In the west, Ruto has garnered the support of all the key leaders who had previously blocked his penetration into the region. With the exception of DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, almost all of the region’s leading politicians now support the president.
The President yesterday attended the homecoming function of Cooperative Union President CS Oparanya and praised him, urging the community to support his broad-based government.
The Sunday Standard reports that key strategists from both Raila and Ruto have finalised an agreement that would see Raila and his forces focus on the administration.
Ruto chose to adopt a “gather them all and don’t scatter” strategy, bringing together his long-time friends through state appointments while aggressively deploying state resources to support their leader, Raila, in taking the AUC job.
Nearly everyone in the military in the region, who has staunchly supported Raila during his time at the helm of the opposition, unquestioningly supports his decision to work with Ruto.
Only a handful of dissenting voices have questioned the motives behind the deal to work with Kenya’s Kwanza government.
In Gusii region, which has supported Raila in past elections, Raila’s decision to open his doors to Ruto earned him a hero’s welcome and praise from some of his harshest critics.
During his tour of Kisii and Nyamira counties, President Ruto launched a total of 17 development projects including affordable housing, last mile rural electrification projects, roads and hospitals.
That amounts to 17 public meetings in various locations where the projects are located, in addition to roadside speeches he gave whenever there were residents who wanted to be addressed.
Governor Simba Arati, a longtime opposition politician, said he fully supported any action by the president that would bring good news to Kenyans.
“Mr President, we are ready to work with you and we will ensure that all those you appoint from our party are able to discharge their duties with your help and we assure you of my full support and that of the people to ensure that our country moves forward,” Arati said in Nyaribali Masaba constituency where Ruto launched the affordable housing project.
Similarly, in Luo Nyanza, all ODM supporters are in support of the President’s administration and are among those expected to welcome the President when he tours the area next week.
ODM leaders have insisted they will field a candidate to challenge President Ruto in the 2027 elections, but observers believe the gains the president is making will deal a blow to any plans to challenge him.
Political analyst Mark Bichachi said Raila’s relationship with President Ruto is a similar access road to the one Uhuru gave to President Ruto when he said “kumi yangu na kumi ya Ruto”.
“President Ruto will no doubt remind all ODM regions that he awarded ODM four cabinet posts and one attorney general post,” Bichachi said.
He believes that whether the votes are dispersed in 2027 or all ODM votes go to him, the outcome will guarantee Ruto’s victory.
ODM sources told the Sunday Standard that they are now caught in the middle and will find it difficult to defend any counter move against Ruto in 2027.
“Our alliance with former President Uhuru was used as a tool by the Kenya Kwanza Party to campaign against us. It will be very easy for them to link ODM with their failures,” the ODM MP said.
Constitutional law scholar Clifford Obiero said reunification would divide the Western region as Raila would never be in a position to unify the competing interests that have arisen since his withdrawal from local politics.
“We will see more unknown forces entering Nyanza and western Kenya,” Obiero said.
Raila believes he is not handing Nyanza over to Ruto but rather offering support, but that could change at any time depending on the political situation and terrain.
Constitutional law scholar Ndegwa Njiru said Raila’s reunion with Ruto would not affect the Western and Nyanza regions.