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South Africa’s radical Economic Freedom Fighters party, led by firebrand Julius Malema, is on the brink of “internal collapse” after months of simmering tensions within its leadership that have come to the fore with the departure of its powerful deputy leader, analysts say.
For more than a decade, Malema’s party has garnered huge support among disenfranchised South Africans, with policies calling for land redistribution and nationalisation of key parts of the economy.
But it performed poorly in May’s general election, winning just 9.5% of the vote and being overtaken by Umkhonto weSizwe (MK), an upstart party led by former South African president Jacob Zuma.
The two parties that received the most votes, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress and the centrist Democratic Alliance, later formed a coalition government with eight other parties, excluding the EFF and MK.
A weeks-long war of words culminated last week when Floyd Shivambu, a close aide to Malema who founded the party with him in 2013, announced he was resigning to join Zuma’s MK party. Mzwanele Mani, another key EFF figure who played a key role in parliament, has said the same thing, and analysts expect others to follow suit.
In his resignation letter, Shivambu described his departure as a “revolutionary act that will allow progressive forces to unite”.
After initially appearing to accept Shivambu’s resignation, Malema then went on the offensive, slamming “silent enemies” within the EFF and telling those whose loyalties were uncertain to “go now”.
Addressing EFF members in Soweto this week, Malema spoke of “those who betrayed me and used him to line their own pockets”.
Analysts said Malema’s increasingly authoritarian stance – a year ago he fired 200 party members for failing to organise transport for the party’s 10th anniversary celebrations – and his unwillingness to give up his leadership role likely influenced the defections.
He also pointed to a criminal investigation into 2 billion rand ($122 million) stolen from VBS Mutual Bank, whose former head was implicated in a plea deal that detailed how he made payments to both Shivambu and Malema.
“At this point, it’s hard not to see the EFF imploding,” said independent political analyst Ralph Mathekga. “The EFF is a party built around Malema, and Malema is now imploding, so I expect the EFF to be destroyed in the 2026 local elections. In the longer term, the collapse of the EFF is likely to lead to a realignment of South African politics.”
Mathekga said Malema’s reluctance to institutionalise the party and put in place an orderly succession plan that would allow someone like Shivambu to ascend to higher positions was now his major weakness. “It sends a strong message to other members of the EFF that if Floyd, the party’s founder, cannot become leader, then what hope is there for other members,” he said.
The defections also puncture the perception that Malema is a shrewd political tactician – a perception that was already damaged when negotiations between him and Ramaphosa over a place in a unity government failed.
Some reports have suggested that Malema had demanded the vice presidency as a condition for the EFF to be included in a unity government, but he said at the Soweto conference that he had “never asked for any position.” ANC officials said negotiators felt that Malema’s demand to exclude the DA from a unity government was excessive.
While Malema’s loss may appear to be Zuma’s gain, Mathekga said this was not necessarily the case.
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“If anything, these developments highlight how weak South Africa’s left-wing parties are. We have seen the MK party in disarray as well, so we are not convinced that Zuma’s meteoric rise at the last election is sustainable in the long term,” he said.
This month, MK fired 18 of its own lawmakers who had only been sworn in a few weeks, leading some to accuse the party of trying to install “friends” of powerful figures, such as Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma Sambudla, in the party.
Mbazima Shilowa, a former ANC leader who is now retired, said Shivambu’s defection signals a hostile takeover of the EFF by Zuma’s party. But he also said it remains to be seen whether this will be a fatal blow to the EFF. “Contrary to claims that this will strengthen ties between MK and the EFF, it could have the opposite effect,” he said.
