Tropical Storm Ernesto The storm strengthened Tuesday morning and headed toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where forecasters said it could pack strong winds and heavy rain (up to 10 inches in some places) before strengthening into a hurricane.
Ernesto is 2024 Atlantic hurricane season The storm formed on Monday as it moved rapidly toward the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane DebbieErnesto caused devastating flooding in parts of the southeastern United States last week and eventually unleashed severe weather that battered much of the East Coast. The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto was not scheduled to strike the continental United States.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center
A map showing Ernesto’s path suggests the storm will cross some of the Leeward Islands before continuing on its path toward the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, according to the latest forecasts Tuesday afternoon. Ernesto could reach or pass the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by early evening, but forecasters say the storm’s path may take it close to, but not over, the islands.
Ernesto could strengthen into a hurricane after leaving the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but that would require maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or more. Forecasters say that could happen by Wednesday, but initial timelines for Ernesto’s strengthening suggest it won’t reach the threshold needed to warrant hurricane status until early Thursday.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center
As of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, the storm was swirling in the Atlantic Ocean about 85 miles east of St. Croix and 175 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the Hurricane Center. The storm was moving in a west-northwest direction at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Hurricane watches were issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm watches were also in effect for these areas, as well as for Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthélemy and Sint Maarten. Previous tropical storm watches for Antigua and Barbuda and Guadeloupe were lifted Tuesday afternoon.
Hurricane watches are issued when hurricane conditions are likely in a particular area within about 12 hours. Tropical storm watches are issued when forecasters predict tropical storm conditions will affect an area within 36 hours, but meteorologists said at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday that tropical storm conditions could begin in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the evening and possibly sooner. Strong winds and other weather conditions typical of tropical storm forces are already occurring in the Leeward Islands, they said.
Tropical storm-force winds extended up to 105 miles from Ernesto’s center on Tuesday afternoon, up from 70 miles this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Like Debby, which dumped devastating and in some cases record-breaking rains on southeastern U.S. states last week, Ernesto’s biggest threat is flooding, although slightly less rain is expected this week than last week’s hurricane.
Ernesto is expected to dump 4 to 6 inches of rain on parts of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands, and 6 to 8 inches on southeastern Puerto Rico, although forecasters warned that certain locations could get as much as 10 inches.
CBS News senior weather producer David Parkinson said Tuesday morning that even a foot of rain is possible if the terrain allows. Lighter rainfall amounts are expected in northwestern Puerto Rico, totaling 2 to 4 inches.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center
“Heavy rainfall may cause locally significant flooding and landslides in the Leeward Islands through today, and from the Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico late today through Wednesday,” the hurricane center said in an alert Tuesday morning.
Ernesto is also expected to cause a storm surge of one to three feet above ground level along the east coast of Puerto Rico, from the capital San Juan to Guayama, Culebra, and Vieques. The same peak storm surge predictions could also occur in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix, and the British Virgin Islands. The hurricane center warned that the storm surge would be accompanied by large and destructive waves in coastal areas.
NOAA/National Hurricane Center
Ernesto was expected to strengthen from a tropical storm to at least a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday morning and move north up the western Atlantic toward Bermuda, where it could make landfall on Sunday, Parkinson said. He noted that an indirect effect of the storm could be rip currents and larger-than-usual waves along the east coast of the continental U.S.
“It is too early to know how Ernesto will affect Bermuda this weekend,” the hurricane center said Tuesday, adding that “local stakeholders should monitor the progress of this system.”
