As many American children prepare to return to school or are already there, data shows the country is experiencing its worst wave of coronavirus infections to date.
COVID-19 has been spreading at particularly high rates in many parts of the country since the late summer and early fall. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as of August 15, 44 states have high or very high levels of COVID-19 infection. Other CDC data shows that infection levels for the week ending August 10, 2024, the most recent data available, were higher than infection levels in early to mid-August in 2023 and 2022, when COVID-19 infections were spreading significantly during the summer.
The CDC no longer tracks total cases and instead primarily uses sewage data to track COVID levels across the country because the virus can be found in human waste.
“The US is seeing 1.3 million new cases per day, the highest number of cases ever recorded during a back-to-school season. In the Western region, an estimated 1 in 24 people are infectious,” Dr. Michael Hoeger, an associate professor at Tulane University who heads the nation’s top COVID forecasting dashboard, said in an Aug. 19 post on X.
Hoerger used data from Biobot Analytics, which provided wastewater data to the CDC.
PMC COVID-19 Prediction Model, August 19, 2024
The US is reporting 1.3 million new cases in one day, the highest number of cases ever recorded during a back-to-school season. In the Western US, an estimated 1 in 24 people are infected. pic.twitter.com/zyLbtmMIF9
— Dr. Mike Hoerger, MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) August 19, 2024
The CDC did not immediately respond to TODAY.com’s request for comment on how the current COVID outbreak differs from past back-to-school outbreaks.
“This is the second biggest summer wave we’ve ever had,” Hoeger told TODAY.com. “It looks like 2022 was a little bit bigger, but it could get even worse, so we don’t know yet.”
U.S. faces biggest back-to-school coronavirus wave ever
In 2021 and 2020, COVID levels were low during the back-to-school period due to more widespread mitigation measures.
This year, “we had an early summer wave, so we were already peaking in early August, so that’s when we’re actually seeing the most spread as most kids are going back to school,” Hoeger explained.
According to CDC data, COVID drainage levels in early August 2022 were about 7.92 and 3.23 during the same period in 2023. In 2024, it was 8.31 for the week ending Aug. 3 and 8.82 for the week ending Aug. 10.
“While some children have been back in school for a few weeks now, many others are starting back this week or next week, which is creating a real challenge for families and schools to navigate,” Hoeger said.
“I think last year was a big, worrying wave, and this year’s wave is much smaller. So if people remember the difficulties of last year, there’s a good chance that this back-to-school season will be much worse. That’s my concern,” he added.
It’s not clear why COVID levels are higher this summer than in 2023, but Hoeger thinks it could be because people are taking even fewer precautions to mitigate the spread of COVID.
Dr. Richard Murray, a senior infectious disease physician at Boston Children’s Hospital, said there are two main developments that could play out over the remainder of the 2024 back-to-school season.
First, a summer peak could come quickly, with many people infected and developing immunity, leading to “a very mild start to the fall,” he told TODAY.com. Second, a prolonged outbreak could lead to “significant numbers” of infected people entering classrooms and spreading the virus among children, who are at lower risk than adults. But the latter scenario is of particular concern for high-risk children, Murray said.
How to prevent COVID-19 in the new school year
“We saw a big surge in COVID-19 cases across the country over the summer, affecting mostly adults, the most seriously ill elderly, those with underlying chronic conditions, and the unvaccinated, but children are also getting sick and being hospitalized, again mostly unvaccinated,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told TODAY.com.
Here are some tips from Murray and Shaffner to keep kids safe this back to school year.
Vaccinate kids with new COVID booster
Both the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics are recommending that children 6 months of age and older be vaccinated when a new COVID vaccine becomes available, which is expected to be available in late August or early September.
“If I were a parent (of a school-age child), I would want my child to be the first to get the new vaccine,” Schaffner said.
For parents who have questions about whether to get their children the new COVID booster shot, Murray urges them to talk to their doctor.
Talk to your school about precautions, especially for children with underlying medical conditions
While mask-wearing and social distancing aren’t widely practiced in most schools, Schaffner encourages parents to talk to their child’s teachers, school administrators and doctors if they want their school to take precautions, which he recommends for high-risk children.
“If I was a parent of a child with diabetes or chronic heart or lung disease, I would be extra cautious,” he said. “I would have a conversation with the teacher and say, ‘I’m going to encourage my child to wear a mask.'”
Murray added: “Wearing a mask is a personal decision that is very easy to make and is done by many people. … It does no harm to anyone else. There is no reason to limit someone’s ability to make that decision.”
Keeping sick children and adults away from others
Both Murray and Schaffner stressed the importance of staying home and isolating yourself from others if you have symptoms of COVID or any virus, even if you have a negative COVID test result. This is especially true if you have high-risk people in your household.
“It’s always important to be aware of whether you have people in your household who are at higher risk for severe illness,” Murray said. “Those people who are at higher risk should be protected from anyone who has any symptoms consistent with COVID, even if they’ve been vaccinated or have had a booster shot.”
Murray added that good hand hygiene is always beneficial, regardless of the level of COVID-19 infection in your area.
Experts are still learning about the ebb and flow of COVID throughout the year, but one thing seems to be true so far: “Unlike the flu, COVID doesn’t go away in the summer. It’s been there all along and actually increases in the summer and has increased quite a bit this year,” Schaffner said. “It’s not going away, and COVID isn’t going away. We’re just going to have to learn to live with it.”
This article originally appeared on TODAY.com.