Article informationauthor, Laura Gozzirole, BBC News
3 hours ago
MEPs will decide on Thursday whether to hand Ursula von der Leyen a second term as European Commission president.
Despite recent efforts by von der Leyen to consolidate support, the outcome of the vote, due to take place at 1pm (11am GMT) in the European Parliament in Brussels, is by no means certain.
Von der Leyen, who has been European Commission president since 2019, needs 361 votes to be confirmed for a second term.
With support from her own centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Social Democrats and the liberal Renew, she should have enough votes.
But to complicate things, the vote is secret, meaning MEPs can vote according to their own preferences, rather than party lines.
Several Irish MEPs from centrist parties have said they will vote against her nomination because of her stance on the Gaza war, and several French MEPs from Ms von der Leyen’s own European People’s Party (EPP) have also said they will not support her.
To limit the possibility of any unwanted surprises, von der Leyen has been holding closed-door meetings with several parliamentary groups over the past few weeks in an attempt to secure their votes.
Her candidacy has not been entirely successful: after one meeting, MEPs from the Left group said they had decided not to vote for her because of Ms von der Leyen’s commitment to increasing military and defence spending.
She also met with the Green party and received positive signals, although some MEPs said they would wait to hear von der Leyen’s speech on Thursday before making any final decisions.
The delegations of Romania, France and Poland have said they will vote against the bill, but she has reportedly succeeded in persuading some members of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party to support her.
The Italian prime minister, who heads the European Parliament, is also said to be postponing a decision on how to instruct Italy’s 24 MEPs to vote until after von der Leyen has spoken.
But Italian media reports suggest she is leaning towards supporting von der Leyen in exchange for being offered a senior role in the next European Commission, including one of Italy’s coveted areas of economy and competition.
Meloni, leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, has achieved prominence on the European right.
Image source, Getty Images
The third largest group in parliament, the newly formed Patriots for Europe, founded by Hungarian Prime Minister Orban and which includes leaders of far-right parties in France, Austria and the Netherlands, refused to back von der Leyen.
If von der Leyen does not get through today’s European Parliament vote, the EU will be back to square one, with leaders having to agree on a new candidate who will then be approved by the European Parliament.
Although names have been mentioned, no obvious replacement has emerged so far.
Von der Leyen won the post five years ago after EU leaders put her name forward at the last minute after a political deadlock over other candidates.
At the time, she won by just nine votes more than the majority needed, and Thursday’s vote could be just as close.
