Overall confidence rose, but consumers were more concerned about the labor market
new york, August 27, 2024 Germany, May 23, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index® rose to 103.3 (1985=100) in August from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July. The Current Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, improved to 134.4 from 133.1 in July. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, also improved to 82.5 in August. The Expectations Index was upwardly revised to 81.1 in July, making August the second consecutive month the index has exceeded 80 (a reading below 80 typically signals an economic downturn). The deadline for provisional results is August 21, 2024.
“Consumer confidence rose overall in August but remained within the narrow range of the past two years,” it said. Dana M. PetersonJohn McGillie, chief economist at the Conference Board, said: “Consumers continued to exhibit mixed sentiment in August. Compared to July, consumers became more positive about current and future business conditions, but also more concerned about the labor market. While consumers’ assessments of their current work conditions remain positive, they continued to weaken, and their assessments of the future of the labor market became more pessimistic, likely reflecting the recent increase in the unemployment rate. Consumers were also somewhat less optimistic about their future incomes.”
“Confidence among consumers under 35 declined in August, while confidence among consumers aged 35 and over increased. On a six-month moving average, confidence among younger consumers remains the strongest. The headline index improved overall, but confidence among consumers earning less than $1 million declined. $25,000The six-month moving average $100,000 Consumers are the most confident. $15,000 To $24,900 The trend continues to decline, $15,000“
Peterson added, “Consumers appeared to be shaken by the financial market turmoil in early August and were less optimistic about the stock market. In August, 46.9% of consumers expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months (down from 50.6% in July), while 27.2% expected stock prices to fall (up from 23.1%). August’s write-in responses also increasingly mentioned that stock prices and unemployment are affecting consumers’ views of the U.S. economy. However, consumers did not change their view on the possibility of a recession. The percentage of consumers who expect a recession remained stable and well below its 2023 peak.”
Consumers are rating their family’s current financial situation less positively but are more optimistic about the next six months. (These indicators are not included in the calculation of the Consumer Confidence Index®.)
12-month average inflation expectations fell to 4.9% in August. March 2020 This is consistent with slowing inflation overall and declines in some commodity prices. But mentions of prices and inflation topped the list of write-in responses. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 months fell for the third consecutive month to 46.5%, the lowest since 2010. February 2024The percentage of people who expect interest rates to fall rose to 31.5%, April 2020.
On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase a home fell to a 12-year low, while plans to purchase a car improved slightly. Plans to purchase big-ticket appliances increased on average, but the increase was driven by only a few items, such as refrigerators, televisions and washing machines. Plans to purchase a smartphone and laptop/PC in the next six months increased again.
In the August write-in survey, the percentage of respondents who believe the 2024 election will affect the economy remained stable and slightly above 2020 levels, but August 2016 level.
current situation
Consumers’ assessment of the current economic situation became more positive in August.
20.8% of consumers said the business environment is “good,” up from 19.2% in July. 17.7% said the business environment is “bad,” down from 18.2%.
However, consumers’ views of the labor market worsened in August.
32.8% of consumers say jobs are “plentiful,” down from 33.4% in July. 16.4% of consumers say jobs are “hard to come by,” up slightly from 16.3%.
Expectations after 6 months
Consumers were more optimistic about their economic outlook in August.
18.4% of consumers expect the economy to improve, up from 15.2% in July, while 15.6% expect the economy to worsen, down from 16.2%.
Consumers became slightly less optimistic about their labor market prospects in August.
16.1% of consumers expect the number of job openings to increase, up from 15.2% in July, while 17.5% expect the number of job openings to decrease, also up from 16.4%.
Consumers were more pessimistic about their income prospects in August.
16.9% of consumers expect their income to increase, down from 17.2% in July. 12.7% expect their income to decrease, up from 11.6%.
Households and recession risk assessment
Consumers’ assessment of their family’s current financial situation weakened further in August. However, their assessment of their family’s future financial situation improved. Consumers’ perceived likelihood of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months remains virtually unchanged and well below its 2023 peak.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on an online sample and is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that provides real-time consumer insights and market research through innovative technology, expertise and a panel of over 36 million consumers. The deadline for preliminary results is August 21.
sauce: August 2024 Consumer Confidence Survey®
Conference Board
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index®. 10am ET It takes place on the last Tuesday of each month. Subscription information and technical notes for the series can be found on The Conference Board’s website at https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.
About the Conference Board
The Conference Board is a member-driven think tank providing trusted insight into the future. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization with 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org.
Source: The Conference Board
