In 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was embroiled in the US presidential election campaign. This time, he entered the vote quickly, weeks before a vote that could have huge implications for Kiev’s defense against a Russian invasion.
On September 22nd, President Zelensky toured a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, which produces ammunition for the military, thanked the workers, and signed off on one 155mm shell vital to Kiev’s war effort. He was joined by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and two members of the House of Representatives, both Democrats.
Had Zelenskiy visited the factory on any of his previous four trips to the United States since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, it might have been forgotten by now.
Rather, it has become a flashpoint for Republicans, a nearly week-long challenge to the United States, Ukraine’s biggest backer, at a time when Russia is making gains on the battlefield and destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches. The hope is that Western support for Kiev will wither by sparking a controversy that mars the visit.
battlefield
Scranton is President Joe Biden’s hometown. Pennsylvania is a key battleground state where voters could ultimately decide between former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 election.
For Zelensky, the factory tour “was aimed at demonstrating and showing that aid to Ukraine is beneficial for the United States itself,” said Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the Ukrainian think tank New Europe. A non-resident senior fellow at the center and the U.S.-based Atlantic Council Eurasia Center spoke to RFE/RL in Kyiv.
She said Trump apparently perceived this as “an attempt to influence the very fragile electoral balance in Pennsylvania, which means he sees it exclusively in the electoral context.” “Ta”.
Zelensky’s visit to the United States was followed by a speech at the United Nations and a meeting with Biden and Harris at the White House, and Republicans slammed the factory tour. House Speaker Mike Johnson called it a “partisan campaign event.” requested President Zelenskiy has “immediately dismissed” Ambassador Oksana Markarova to the United States.
Charles Kapchan, an analyst at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, said the visit to a munitions factory “backfired.”
“This is more a sign of the polarization of the debate between Democrats and Republicans than a failure on Mr. Zelensky’s part,” he told RFE/RL.
“It’s more difficult.”
Mykola Bieryskov, an analyst at the state-backed National Strategic Institute in Kyiv, suggested that the U.S. election campaign has made navigating relations with Kyiv’s most important backer particularly difficult.
“Zelenskyy is doing his best,” Bierieskov told RFE/RL during his visit to the United States. “We’re seeing some results, and I’m sure there will be more. And we need to address all factions of American politics. And we’re going to make this happen. And the election It’s even more difficult during the season.”
Even for Biden, “it’s very difficult to take any radical steps that would bring the issue of escalation closer to his head, because all the surveys within the United States, the domestic surveys, the American people certainly This is because we are concerned about nuclear escalation.” he said. “That makes it more difficult for Ukraine to advocate for different things that we need.”
During his visit, President Zelensky did not secure a commitment to allow the United States to attack Kiev with American long-range missiles deep into Russia.
A group of House Republicans withheld $61 billion in mostly military aid to Ukraine for six months, in part because the money would be better spent domestically, leading to ammunition shortages on the battlefield. The visit to Scranton underscored the fact that the United States spends much of its domestic aid money replenishing the arms and equipment it sends to Ukraine.
Johnson ultimately helped make the package a reality. His public outrage over the factory visit showed goodwill over the lack of development.
Kurt Volker, a Pennsylvania native who served as the Trump administration’s special envoy to Ukraine from 2017 to 2019, said the timing of the factory tour was a “big mistake.”
“This is a very sensitive time, a sensitive issue, a sensitive country, including important swing states. This is just playing with fire and Ukraine should do everything possible to avoid becoming a political subject in the elections. ,” Volker said. He is currently an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
A long time ago
Lucian Kim, a senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, said the trip was a “failure” for Zelenskiy, calling it a “failure” for Mr. He said he was exposed to criticism from opponents of aid to Ukraine. policy.
“The United States’ bilateral support is one of the cornerstones of Ukraine’s foreign policy,” Kim said. “That level of bipartisan support now appears to be in question. MAGA factions unsympathetic to Ukraine are increasingly defining the Republican Party.”
The Pennsylvania factory visit finally became one of the factors that cast doubt on the expected meeting between Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump — a 2019 phone call just months after the election of the Ukrainian leader that led to Mr. Trump’s impeachment. , the relationship between the two has changed over the years – will happen.
President Trump was impeached by the then-Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 after he was accused of pressuring Zelenskiy during a phone call to reveal dirt on the Biden family’s activities in Ukraine. He was acquitted in February 2020 by the then-Republican-controlled Senate.
Trump has targeted Zelensky multiple times. At a campaign stop on September 25, he repeatedly described the Ukrainian president as “the greatest salesman in the world.” This is a reference to the tens of billions of dollars in aid that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have approved since the election began. Full-scale invasion of Russia.
“Proposal of Surrender”
He also reiterated his claim that Kiev should have reached an agreement with Russia to halt or end the invasion. “Any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than this,” he asserted. “If they had made the wrong deal, it would have been better. If they had given up a little bit, everyone would have lived.”
President Trump has said he would quickly end Russia’s war against Ukraine if elected, saying he would do so multiple times even before his inauguration in January, and on September 27 he met Zelensky in New York. He made similar claims during the meeting. He has not said how he would accomplish this, but his comments have raised concerns that his efforts include encouraging Ukraine to cede territory to Russia. It is occurring.
The main purpose of Mr. Zelensky’s visit to the United States was to present his policies to Mr. Biden and others. “Plan for Victory” It is for the war against Russian aggression, but details have not been announced. In a September 10 debate with Harris, President Trump was asked if he wanted Ukraine to win, and he avoided giving a direct answer, saying, “I want the war to stop.”
On September 26, Harris said the suggestion that Kyiv should cede territory for the sake of peace was “dangerous and unacceptable.” These calls are a “proposal to surrender.”
meeting in new york
In an interview with new yorker “President Trump thinks he knows how to stop wars, but he actually doesn’t know how,” Zelenskiy said before his visit to the United States. He also said Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, is “too radical” and suggested he wants Ukraine to “give up our territory.”
When Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump met at Trump Tower in New York, the atmosphere appeared to be calm, with Mr. Trump praising Mr. Zelensky’s actions during the impeachment proceedings, saying, “He was a piece of steel.” , there was no sign that the situation was changing. President Trump’s attitude toward Russian aggression.
Trump again offered no details on how he would seek to end the war, saying he believed “it would be resolved very quickly” if elected president. “If we win, long before January 20th…we will be able to work out something that is good for both sides this time,” Trump said before the meeting.
After the meeting, President Trump said, “Unfortunately, this is a war that should not happen. We will solve it.” “It’s a complex puzzle… There are too many deaths.”
In a Telegram post after a “very fruitful meeting,” Zelenskiy said he presented Trump with a “win plan” and “discussed many details.”
“There is a common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. President Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must win,” he said.
It remains to be seen whether Zelenskiy’s visit will have an impact on the outcome of the US presidential election.
“Foreign policy issues generally don’t decide the outcome of (U.S.) elections. People vote on the economy, immigration, crime, things that are on their daily radar screen,” Kupchan said.
And it’s also unclear exactly how a Trump or Harris victory might change the course of the war.
Kupchan said that despite Trump’s rhetoric, if elected, he would likely struggle to reach a deal with Putin and end up approving aid to Ukraine.
“Trump won’t want to be the American president who loses Ukraine, so even if he gets elected and tries to negotiate endgames, he too will eventually have to send aid to Ukraine. It will be,” he said.
By RFE/RL
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